Gasoline prices in Ukraine may surge sharply: Expert explains reason
Photo: Gasoline prices in Ukraine may surge sharply (Getty Images)
Due to market instability and the risks to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz area, gasoline prices in Ukraine may rise significantly, states Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center, in a comment to the YouTube channel of RBC-Ukraine.
Omelchenko explained that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz area faces security control challenges due to the conflict in the Middle East.
"If we take the baseline scenario — that there won’t be a large-scale attack on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the conflict continues for several weeks at a moderate level of intensity, roughly as it is now — then the price could stay around $75–80 per barrel, give or take a few percent," the expert said.
According to the Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center, this could also lead to an increase in gasoline prices at Ukrainian filling stations.
"Prices are already rising, although the impact hasn’t fully reached our petroleum products yet. But some fuel networks are already reacting under this pretext and trying to make excessive profits. That’s why the role of the Antimonopoly Committee in Ukraine will be significant — it depends on how effectively it performs," he said.
The expert noted that if the committee’s work is unsatisfactory, there could be a sharp spike in prices at Ukrainian gas stations — up to 65 UAH ($1,56 - ed.) per liter of A-95 gasoline.
"Possibly even higher," Omelchenko added.
Threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz
The New York Times has reported that Iran has allegedly already prepared missiles and other weaponry for potential strikes on US targets in the region in the event of direct US involvement in the conflict.
US officials have also pointed out that if the US strikes Fordow, Iran would almost certainly respond through its proxy forces — the Houthis, as well as militants in Iraq and Syria. Such a strike could also trigger the mining of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the movement of US naval vessels in the Persian Gulf.
Moreover, Iran itself has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz with naval mines, and locating and neutralizing such explosive devices would be extremely difficult. Importantly, blocking this strait would paralyze the movement not only of military but also commercial vessels, jeopardizing global oil and gas supplies.
Gasoline prices in Ukraine have already risen in recent days due to a spike in global oil prices.
