Expert assesses threats to Estonia from Russia
Photo: Russia tests NATO's reaction by threatening Estonia (Getty Images)
Russia is conducting actions aimed at testing NATO's response and creating tension in the Baltic states. This may include small special operations or even long-term destabilization, stated military expert and former officer of the Security Service of Ukraine Ivan Stupak in a commentary to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
“As for the Baltic states, Russia has long been encroaching on them. There is a lot of negative reflection towards the Baltic states because Russia believes that the Baltic states were the first dominoes that triggered the events that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. They cannot be forgiven for this,” the expert noted.
According to Stupak, the Baltic states have been expecting an attack from Russia for more than four years.
“Back in 2020, off the record, the military (of the Baltic states - ed.) said that they expected an attack from Russia. Even then, four years ago, they said that no one would defend them. They argued that it would take NATO 180 days to deploy a rapid response force, and during that time 'we would all be slaughtered.' This is a literal quote,” he said.
Stupak emphasized that although NATO has revised the timeline for deploying the forces, it still does not provide guarantees for any of the countries.
“Let's be honest: NATO is a big collective farm. There is no one big CEO, there is a Secretary General, and all decisions are made unanimously. If one or two countries say no, then no Article 5 will be activated,” the expert added.
In conclusion, he suggested that Russia could organize small special operations, for example, in the Narva area of Estonia, to test NATO.
“To summarize: what Russia has been doing in the Baltic Sea for the last year, when it jams GPS, exposing planes and ships to danger, can be partly seen as preparation not for a full-scale invasion, because it has no forces now, but for a long war in the style of 'I cannot capture, but I will harm',” Stupak said.
He explained that there could be a “small special operation” in such a small location as Narva to show NATO that it can do nothing.
Earlier today, Politico described a possible scenario of how Russia could try to seize part of Estonia.
It was about the city of Narva, which is located between Estonia and Russia.
It should be noted that back in May, the head of Poland's military counterintelligence service, Jarosław Stróżyk, said that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin was ready for a small military operation against a NATO country. According to him, it could be Narva or a Swedish island.
