Russia may try to seize part of Estonia - Politico

According to the agency, the city of Narva squeezed along Estonia's border with Russia, has been at the center of efforts to counter Moscow's constant provocations - from jamming satellite navigation to stolen border demarcation buoys, propaganda, surveillance drones, and buzzing airships.

“We are not intending to start a third world war, but we see the constant attempts to provoke us to do something which would have a higher impact,” said Egert Belitsev, Director General of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Directorate.

According to the journalists, the concern is that “Kremlin could play the same card and try to seize eastern Estonia, with its large population of ethnic Russians.”

“And then dare NATO to launch a global war in response. A failure to react would show that NATO's Article 5 common defense provision is meaningless,” Politico describes Russia's possible plan of action.

In addition, in support of the possibility of such a plan, the agency recalls that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin even suggested in 2022, shortly after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, that Narva was historically part of Russia.

Peculiarity of the region

About a quarter of Estonia's population, according to the agency, are ethnic Russians. Most of them have Estonian citizenship, and most feel close ties to Estonia.

But the Kremlin has in the past been able to use ethnic differences to claim a special role in protecting the Russian diaspora. This was done in Georgia and Moldova, and it became the pretext for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In May, the head of Poland's military counterintelligence service, Jaroslaw Strozyk, said that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is already ready for a small military operation against a NATO country. It could be Narva or a Swedish island.