Deadlock looms over Istanbul negotiations: Ukrainian expert’s insight on problem

"If there is no memorandum text by Monday, when the negotiations begin (I think they will somehow draft something by Monday), we simply won’t discuss it," the political analyst said.

According to him, the subject of discussion could be Ukrainian proposals, and the Ukrainian delegation will hear the reaction of the Russian side.

"Secondly, it will be necessary to determine the issues related to the memorandum itself — what its structure and form should be, because this is important when it comes to the status of this document. So far, it seems to be about some kind of protocol of intent. Nonetheless, there must be a mutual understanding between both sides about the status of the document and how it will affect further negotiations. And, of course, the content that this memorandum should include, as well as the logic of the negotiations," the expert noted.

Fesenko pointed out that currently, there is a fundamental contradiction between the positions of the two countries.

"The Ukrainian side insists on a ceasefire. And, by the way, there have already been leaks to the New York Times that the key position of the Ukrainian draft is precisely the procedure for the ceasefire, monitoring, and that is correct. Russia, on the other hand, may put forward the same demands as before — that we withdraw troops from the regions they annexed and so on. And then a deadlock situation will arise again," he explained.

At the same time, he emphasized that the Ukrainian side will not be able to discuss Russian proposals without prior analysis.

"I will say more: according to diplomatic rules, since the Russian side has not provided us with their text, accordingly our delegation will not have directives for discussing this text, and that is essential. Just as the Russian delegation has its directives, so must ours. Therefore, the Russian text will only be discussed in the next round," he concluded.

Russia is still 'preparing' a memorandum on a ceasefire

Discussions about a written document outlining visions for a possible ceasefire were agreed upon during the talks in Istanbul on May 16.

Later, the Kremlin even announced the preparation of the so-called memorandum, and then Russia proposed holding a second round of negotiations on June 2 — again in Istanbul.

However, Russia has been delaying handing over the document to Ukraine for the second week now. Initially, there were statements that the memorandum would be handed over after a prisoner exchange of 1,000 for 1,000, but this did not happen. The document was not delivered even after Ukraine submitted its proposals to Russia.

Currently, there are statements that Moscow will present its memorandum at the next negotiations. However, Ukraine demands that the document with Russia’s proposals be provided before June 2.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha noted that this would help make the next meeting more substantive, and the delegation would have the authority to discuss the relevant positions.

At the same time, the head of the Office of the President, Andriy Yermak, told the media that Ukraine is ready for the next round of negotiations with Russia — but only if Moscow provides the memorandum in advance.