Could Kursk breakthrough expand into Russian Belgorod region: Expert's opinion

Contents

• Breakthrough could encompass the Belgorod region and beyond
• What forces does Russia have in the Bryansk and Belgorod regions
• Russian forces strengthen Belgorod region amid advance near Kursk

Breakthrough could encompass the Belgorod region and beyond

The interlocutor reminded that in the past, there have been multiple raids in the Belgorod region, conducted by groups like the Russian Volunteer Corps, the Freedom of Russia Legion, and other battalions. According to him, what happened once could very well happen again.

"I don't know General Syrskyi's plans, but I'm confident that what we saw in the Kursk region is just one stage in the effort to create a security zone. The same sanitary zone that Putin once dreamed of is now being established by the Ukrainian Defense Forces," says Seleznov.

In his opinion, it is already evident that a certain security space is forming in the border area of Sumy. Although artillery shells and rockets continue to "arrive" in large numbers, the amount of artillery shells and mortar rounds has decreased. The expert noted that the larger the area of control by the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region, the safer the conditions for the residents of Sumy will be.

"Could such a scenario occur in the Belgorod region? Quite possibly. It should not be ruled out for obvious reasons. Creating a security space is not just General Syrskyi's desire to demonstrate his effectiveness. It is a matter of security for the residents of our border area," says Seleznov.

The expert also does not rule out a similar scenario for the Bryansk region in Russia.

"This is really important. If it is impossible to negotiate with the enemy if the enemy continues to kill the civilian population of our country, then we must find ways to neutralize the enemy and create a security perimeter for our citizens in the border areas," says Seleznov.

What forces does Russia have in the Bryansk and Belgorod regions

The interlocutor suggests that the Russian military grouping in the Bryansk region may amount to up to 20,000, probably even less. He notes that the enemy has quite seriously prepared engineering fortifications there, as the Russian forces began constructing them in the region after the first raid by the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion.

"The residents of our Chernihiv region constantly suffer from enemy actions by sabotage and reconnaissance groups and shelling. This problem needs to be addressed somehow. Will it be resolved by crossing the border and attacking directly from Ukrainian territory into the Bryansk region? Of course, I don’t know," said Seleznov.

He believes it would be advisable to create the necessary capabilities for Ukrainian forces in this manner. However, it must be understood that creating a sanitary zone in the Kursk region could likely expand to the Bryansk and Belgorod regions, the interlocutor emphasizes.

"As for Belgorod, there are many more Russian troops there. Out of the 70,000-strong Sever (North) grouping, about 50-55 thousand are located in the Belgorod region and partly in the north of Kharkiv region," Seleznov explains.

According to him, it is much more challenging to carry out a mission to cross the border and take control of part of the Belgorod region.

"Although the Russians constantly claim that the 'Ukrainian army is forming a strike group' in the Zolochiv area. Whether this is true or not, I don’t know, and it’s clear that such information is not widely publicized. In any case, I think that in the near future, within a few days or maybe weeks, we will either witness a breakthrough on the battlefield towards Belgorod or it will not happen," Seleznov said.

The expert explains that much depends on how quickly the enemy can move enough resources to block the Ukrainian foothold in the Kursk region.

"This is now the task of Syrskyi—to see if we can reinforce our grouping. We are already digging trenches there, so we are in the Kursk region for the long term. This is not like the raiding actions conducted by the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russia Legion. Alternatively, we might open other sections of the front to continue forcing the enemy to spread their resources," Seleznov emphasized.

In this context, the expert reminded that the enemy is currently using supplementary resources. The only thing is that the Russian army is pulling forces into the Kursk region from Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and the north of Kharkiv. However, they have not withdrawn their resources from eastern Ukraine and continue to primarily attack in the Pokrovsk direction.

Russian forces strengthen Belgorod region amid advance near Kursk

It should be noted that the breach of the Russian border in the Kursk region from the Sumy side occurred on August 6, 2024. For almost a week, the Ukrainian side remained silent, and it was only on August 12 that Kyiv officially confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were advancing in the Kursk region. Since then, fighting has continued in the region, with Ukrainian troops managing to advance by 35 km and taking control of 1,150 sq. km.

In response to the Ukrainian Armed Forces operation (UAF), the Russian authorities at the regional level introduced a "counterterrorist operation" regime not only in the Kursk region but also in the Bryansk and Belgorod regions. In the latter, a "federal emergency situation" regime was also introduced on Thursday.

Belgorod governor Vyacheslav Gladkov explained that the situation in the region is extremely complicated due to constant "Ukrainian shelling" and drone attacks. Additionally, entry to the border of Krasnoyaruzhsky district has been closed, and evacuation of the population is underway there.

Furthermore, yesterday, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Bilousov spoke about a "defense plan" for the Belgorod region. According to him, additional forces will be deployed to the region to protect it amid the UAF's advance in the neighboring Kursk region. He stated that the Russian General Staff "has already prepared an appropriate plan."

For more details on the offensive near the Russian border and where the battles are taking place, read RBC-Ukraine's material Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region: Updated battle maps.