Breakthrough or bust? Fight for Ukrainian Dobropillia and Russia's possible next target

Key questions

• Was there a breakthrough in Dobropillia?
• What are the prospects and consequences?
• What else are the Russians planning on the front?

The Russians have advanced 10 kilometers near Dobropillia in the Donetsk region. According to the analytical OSINT project DeepState, the Russians have advanced in the tactical zone on the northern flank of the Pokrovsk direction, all the way to the Dobropillia-Kramatorsk highway. According to the DeepState map, part of the road in this area is already marked as a gray zone.

Some OSINT observers, military personnel, and experts describe the situation in this area as catastrophic and critical. However, the agency's sources in military circles say that the situation is recoverable.

What happened?

As explained by an informed source in military circles to RBC-Ukraine, Russian infantry advanced from the village of Novotoretsk to Kucheriv Yar, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodiaz. At the same time, Russia is trying to cross the Dobropillia-Kramatorsk highway in the Novovodiane and Petrivka areas.

"This is not so much a breakthrough as a seepage. This seepage has been going on for almost a week. The terrain there is somewhat problematic, given the network of mines. Their goal is to create a threat of encirclement for the entire Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration from the north, from the direction of Dobropillia," explained one of the agency's interlocutors.

Russia's next task will likely be to consolidate its positions, then bring in subsequent waves of troops and expand the flanks of this wedge. At the same time, Russians may also plan to develop this breakthrough to the north while expanding the flanks in order to cut through the entire Donetsk front.

DeepState map

Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for the Dnipro operational-strategic group of forces, explained that the Russians are using tactics of infiltrating small groups past the first line of defense, the kill zone, losing a lot of personnel, which is what happened near Dobropillia.

"A small Russian group bypassed Ukrainian positions and tried to hide in our rear," he said.

Why did this happen?

DeepState analysts claim that the area of Zolotyi Kolodiaz, Shakhove, and other settlements in these surroundings is a location for the construction of new heavy engineering and fortification structures with high-quality engineering barriers and, most importantly, high-quality positions such as platoon strongpoint and company stronghold. However, Russians are bypassing them.

According to the DeepState team, this is an example of how, along with well-built engineering and fortification structures, you need people to maintain them, as well as effective command that will use such opportunities correctly.

"The situation is quite chaotic, because the Russians, having found gaps in the defense, is infiltrating deep into the territory, trying to quickly consolidate its positions and build up forces for further advancement, while some individuals in the command of a certain brigade either do not understand the full depth of the problem or present the situation as under control, in which everyone has been killed, everyone has been stopped. However, the military personnel themselves, who are holding the defense there and trying to understand what is happening, disagree with this," writes DeepState.

This information was partially confirmed by one of the agency's sources: allegedly, there were mistakes or inaction on the part of the leadership of one of the brigades. For security reasons, we are not naming this unit.

Possible future scenarios, and threat to entire Donetsk region

Many military observers and public figures writing about the war have presented the situation as if the Russian army had broken through Ukraine's last line of defense in the Donetsk region and that the near future would be decisive for the entire region remaining under Ukrainian control. According to RBC-Ukraine sources, such assessments are somewhat exaggerated.

Trehubov notes that a similar situation recently occurred with the penetration of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups into Pokrovsk, and it was not successful for the Russians. According to him, in this case, too, there is no question of a large-scale breakthrough or the Russians taking control of the entire protrusion they passed along with Dobropillia.

"These are small groups of several people. And so, on maps from open sources, it seems that the Russians have advanced 12 kilometers into Ukrainian territory. But this does not mean that they have taken control of this territory," Trehubov comments.

Another source told the agency that the situation in this area is difficult but not catastrophic. According to his assessment, the total number of Russian troops in the groups that have infiltrated the rear of Ukrainian positions may be around 100-200 people. However, he said, many of them have already been captured or killed.

"Today, stabilization measures have begun. Now they are all being searched for and captured. The clearing of the plantations is already underway. Reinforcements have already arrived there," the source said. The interlocutor predicts that in the coming days, this infiltration will be eliminated.

Ukraine's General Staff later also stated that in order to strengthen the stability of the defense, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided to allocate additional forces and resources and planned measures to block Russian groups in this area. According to the General Staff, some of the groups have already been destroyed, while the rest are in the process of being destroyed.

"Several small groups of enemy forces bypassed the positions of Ukrainian defenders and attempted to advance toward the village of Zolotyi Kolodiaz. In addition, taking advantage of the local terrain, saboteurs secretly infiltrated the settlements of Vesele, Vilne, Rubizhne, Kucheriv Yar... The situation is difficult and dynamic, but the Ukrainian Defense Forces are taking all necessary measures to detect and destroy Russian groups... Reserve units have already detected the Russians and are seeing initial success: Russians are being destroyed and taken prisoner," commented the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukrainian military forces have already begun stabilization operations near Dobropillia (photo: GettyImages)

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also announced steps to remedy the situation yesterday evening.

"What happened there? Groups of Russians advanced about 10 kilometers in several locations. All of them are without equipment, only weapons in their hands. Some have already been found – partly eliminated, partly taken prisoner. The others will also be found and destroyed in the near future. The purpose of this advance is clear to us," he said.

Context

According to the agency's sources in military circles, after the Ukrainian military managed to stop the Russian offensive in the Sumy region and then launch a counteroffensive there, Russia transferred its forces from there to the Donetsk region. According to the President of Ukraine, 6 of the 18 occupied important points or villages in the Sumy region have already been liberated. The Kremlin has prioritized the occupation of the Donetsk region over the creation of a so-called buffer zone on the Ukrainian border.

The agency's interlocutors in military circles predict that another dangerous section of the front line soon will remain the Novopavlivka direction – the south of Donetsk region, where the Russians are trying to break through to Dnipropetrovsk. So far, despite all the showy flag-waving, it has not yet succeeded in doing so.

In addition, according to sources, the military expects that at the end of August, Russia may begin to intensify offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia direction, in the area of Kamianske, Orikhiv, and Huliaipole. Russia has transferred part of its troops from the left bank of the Kherson region to this area.

Recently, according to RBC-Ukraine, a relatively small number of Russian troops managed to infiltrate the southern outskirts of Stepnohirsk and hid there in buildings. Yesterday, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully completed the clearing of the village.

Putin wants to achieve maximum progress on the front lines ahead of possible future negotiations for two reasons. First, to have, so to speak, stronger cards at the table in general. Second, in case the issue of territories or a freeze on the current front line arises during the negotiations.