Can Russia produce 25 Oreshnik missiles a month? Expert assessment
Illustrative photo: Russia is not able to produce 25 Oreshnik missiles per month (rosmedia)
Russia cannot produce around 25 Oreshnik ballistic missiles per month, a figure unrealistic even over the course of a year, aviation expert Valerii Romanenko said in a commentary to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
“Oreshnik is indeed a weapon we cannot cope with, but it’s not as scary as Russia portrays. Moreover, mass production of such missiles is impossible. Manufacturing 25 Oreshnik missiles monthly is unrealistic. Even annually, it’s unrealistic,” Romanenko said.
According to him, the production of missiles like the Yars-M, Rubezh, and their derivatives is concentrated at a single plant, the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant. Therefore, Russia will have to halt the production of actual intercontinental ballistic missiles and focus all its efforts on Oreshnik.
"Who would agree to that in the current heightened international and military tensions? They will likely produce them in parallel at best. If they can produce up to ten missiles annually, that would mean five of each type. There might be a slight preference - six, for example. That’s one missile every two months, essentially one strike every two months. Of course, this estimate is based on prior statistics,” the expert explained.
Romanenko emphasized that doubling the production of Oreshnik missiles is unrealistic due to limitations in Russia's park of machine tools.
“While the overall production area could theoretically be expanded, satellite reconnaissance closely monitors such developments. There has been no evidence of new facilities or workshops constructed at the Votkinsk plant, and such information would have been publicized. I strongly doubt any production doubling has occurred,” Romanenko said.
Russia's fake news about Oreshnik
Russia has previously claimed it could produce up to 300 Oreshnik missiles annually, as reported by Military Watch Magazine.
The missile is capable of carrying both nuclear and conventional warheads and targeting up to six objectives, making it "highly valued as a means of engaging Western Bloc forces across Europe, as well as deep into the Pacific and Arctic".
However, the agency noted that increased production of Oreshnik will lead to a reduction in the production of intercontinental ballistic missiles, such as the RS-24 Yars.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, stated that Russia’s claim of producing 25 Oreshnik missiles monthly is not true.
He noted that international sanctions have significantly slowed the production cycle of high-tech missiles in Russia.
