Unpredictable policy. Will Trump revoke Ukraine's green light to strike deep into Russia?
Photo: Donald Trump, US President-elect (Getty Images)
Can US President-elect Donald Trump cancel permissions for Ukraine to strike with Western weapons after taking office, and why hasn't he responded to Ukrainian attacks yet, unlike his political circle, read in the article by RBC-Ukraine.
Contents
- Trump's inner circle criticizes, while he remains silent
- Will Trump revoke permission for strikes deep into Russia?
On the evening of Sunday, November 17, US media released a report that Ukrainians had long awaited: the Biden administration lifted restrictions on Ukraine's strikes against Russia using ATACMS missiles. Subsequently, it was revealed that France and the UK had made similar decisions regarding SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
Later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the decision, hinting it was time for Berlin to reconsider its stance on Taurus cruise missiles. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has long resisted transferring them to Ukraine. In the following days, the first ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles struck targets on Russian territory.
Washington's decision to permit strikes deep into Russia with Western weapons marked a sharp shift in US policy on the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration had previously avoided this step, fearing escalation and crossing Moscow's "red lines." This change is believed to stem from growing cooperation between Russia and North Korea, particularly North Korean military involvement in the war against Ukraine.
However, once Donald Trump, known for his unpredictability, is inaugurated in late January next year, there is a risk that these permissions for deep strikes into Russia might be reconsidered. Whether this will indeed happen remains an open question.
Trump's inner circle criticizes, while he remains silent
Trump's allies and close associates did not mince words or hold back emotions when commenting on the Biden administration's decision.
Trump's son called those who approved aid to Ukraine "imbeciles" and accused the military-industrial complex of wanting to ignite World War III. Meanwhile, Mike Waltz, Trump's future national security advisor, referred to Biden's decision as "another step up the escalation ladder," and billionaire Elon Musk, close to the president-elect, wrote on social media platform X that "Russia will respond in kind."
However, Trump himself has made no public statements on the matter over the past few days. According to Oleksandr Khara, an expert from the Center for Defense Strategies, Trump is deliberately keeping room for maneuvering for when he officially resumes the US presidency.
Trump's inner circle criticizes Biden for lifting restrictions on Ukraine (Photo: Getty Images)
Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the board of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, expressed a similar view in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine. He stated that Trump's decision to refrain from commenting on the issue is entirely logical.
"Why take responsibility in advance for actions that will still need to be taken? He will become president in only two months. A lot can change during that time. So why make any statements or assume obligations now?" Fesenko explained, noting that Trump has made no statements regarding Russia's war against Ukraine since the election.
According to him, this behavior contrasts with Trump's approach during the election campaign. The president-elect is now cautious in his political declarations, maintaining his unpredictability.
"Mike Pompeo, who was not included in Trump's team, said during a visit to Kyiv that the strategy of unpredictability - where the enemy does not know what you will do - works best, especially in international politics," he added.
Will Trump revoke permission for strikes deep into Russia?
The team surrounding the US President-elect seems unaware that Biden's decision has tactically benefited Trump, according to a recent article by Bloomberg. Biden not only responded to the escalation of war by Putin, who has allied with North Korean forces, but also provided Trump with additional leverage for future negotiations with Russia.
According to political analysts, Trump could indeed use the issue of allowing Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory with Western missiles as a negotiation tool with Moscow. For instance, as Oleksandr Khara suggested, Trump might propose a moratorium on such strikes if Russia ceases attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure or halts missile attacks on Ukraine altogether.
Trump may use restrictions on Ukraine as leverage during negotiations with Russia (Photo: flickr.com/USAASC)
However, Volodymyr Fesenko believes it’s unlikely that Trump would unilaterally revoke the decision of the previous administration immediately after returning to the White House. Primarily, because it would not benefit Trump himself. "That would be a sign of weakness," Fesenko explained.
On the contrary, Fesenko argues that, if necessary, Trump might increase support for Ukraine to apply pressure on Moscow and push the Kremlin towards negotiations, especially if Putin maintains an aggressive and unyielding stance.
If the new US administration does ultimately revoke the permission, Ukraine would likely have to comply, Khara believes.
"First, we would technically be unable to proceed without the support. Second, we wouldn’t want to lose the theoretical possibility of Trump continuing to assist us, for example, if Putin violates any agreements," he stated.
For now, Khara believes that Ukraine should maximize the use of its available missiles to address tactical objectives before Trump's inauguration and the transition of a new administration into the White House.
Sources: statements by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, members of the US President-elect Donald Trump’s team, articles by The New York Times and Bloomberg, as well as comments from Ukrainian political analysts Volodymyr Fesenko and Oleksandr Khara.
