Ukrainian Armed Forces' success: How close we are to a turning point on the front

The Lyman-Kupiansk axis remains the only area where the Russians are advancing. Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar says that pressure near Kupiansk (Kharkiv region) is being successfully contained, and attacks near the village of Sinkivka have been repelled.

In the vicinity of Lyman (Donetsk region), there is ongoing repositioning, and Russia is attempting to advance in the areas of Berestove, Novoselivske, and Novoiehorivka. The Chief of the Press Service of the Group East of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Illia Yevlash, refers to Novoiehorivka as one of the epicenters where the enemy's striking force is being formed.

"They are assembling consolidated units. These are remnants, let's say, of units that haven't been defeated... They are also involving anyone they can in combat. However, they are not replenishing their ranks as they used to," he noted.

The village of Novoiehorivka near Svatove remains the epicenter on the Lyman-Kupiansk axis (photo from deepstatemap.live)

Various private military companies are active in this area, and even non-combatants are being recruited for assault teams. Due to a shortage of equipment, the Russians have reverted to the tactic of "human wave assaults."

According to analysts at DeepState, the main battle near Novoiehorivka is for elevation 190.8. Despite systematically destroying the enemy's personnel and equipment, they have occupied several positions. However, their plans to repeat the July assault on Borova have likely failed.

Although military expert Vladyslav Seleznov warns that Russia is mobilizing reserves, and when it forms its striking forces, it's only a matter of time. The 25th Army of the Russian Federation is already actively being deployed on the Lyman-Kupiansk axis.

"They are literally frustrated by the fact that they have not yet reached the left bank of the Oskil River and have not captured the entire territory of the Luhansk region. Our main efforts are concentrated in the south, so I believe that in the coming weeks, there will be turbulent events here. Because the enemy understands that we have limited resources, and we are forced to be on the defensive," he explained.

Klishchiivka is almost liberated. Russians being pushed out from Bakhmut

According to the General Staff reports, the Russians have deployed forces for a breakthrough to the north of Bakhmut. They are unsuccessfully assaulting our defenses near the villages of Zaliznyanske, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and Bohdanivka.

"In turn, our troops are advancing and have partial success in the areas of Klishchiivka and Andriivka," says Hanna Maliar.

According to her, in the past week, an additional 2 square kilometers of territory have been liberated here. Since the beginning of the summer campaign, it's been around 49.

The attention has been focused on the village of Klishchiivka for the past few weeks. At the moment, it seems that the fate of Bakhmut's fortress is being decided on the southern flank. It's about 5 kilometers from the center of the village to its outskirts. As soon as the defensive forces occupy the dominant heights, the southern part of the city and the approaches to it will be under full fire control.

Ukrainian forces are pushing the Russians out from the southern flank near Bakhmut (photo from deepstatemap.live)

At some point, the Russians, realizing that a failure in Klishchiivka threatened to encircle Bakhmut, rushed to defend their positions. But later, they seemed to have gotten burned out, and it was the turn of Ukrainian stormtroopers. Looking at the maps, except for a small area in the northeast, the village is already under Ukrainian control. The situation remains complex; the enemy is using aviation and artillery.

"I believe Klishchiivka could be liberated in the coming days. Will it allow us to encircle Bakhmut? Not yet, there is still a northern flank where fierce battles are also taking place. But we are advancing step by step," stated Major (Reserve) Oleksii Hetman in an interview with the RBC-Ukraine.

A military expert reminds us that for Russian propaganda, Bakhmut holds special emotional significance. Firstly, its capture was presented almost as a victory in the war, and secondly, one human life was sacrificed for every 42 centimeters gained.

"And the Russians don't want to leave Bakhmut; it will be difficult to explain to the population. The phrase about a "gesture of goodwill" or a retreat to more advantageous positions won't work. They will fight to the last, but those who are directly in the city understand the real threat of encirclement," he added.

Western analysts acknowledge progress on the southern flank. According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian-controlled area may have shifted to the railway east of Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

According to DeepState, the Defense Forces are currently clearing Klishchiivka. Official information about its results is expected soon.

Defense forces entered Opytne

One of the main news is that our troops have entered Opytne. This is a settlement in the suburbs of the occupied Donetsk.

"In the Opytne area, we have achieved success, and in my opinion, it is quite significant... While the enemy was concentrated north of Avdiivka, our guys carried out a blitz operation and liberated part of Opytne. There are battles taking place in the populated area," said Vitalii Barabash, the head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration.

According to DeepState analysts, the Russians have been pushed out of the northern part of Opytne. Establishing a foothold in the town itself is currently challenging due to constant artillery fire.

It's worth noting that Opytne borders Avdiivka to the north and, to the south, it connects to Donetsk International Airport via the E50 highway. Before the war, this populated area was considered an elite suburb of Donetsk and remained under Ukrainian control until November 2022.

The defense forces have entered Opytne, which is just a stone's throw away from Donetsk Airport (photo from deepstatemap.live)

The operation in Opytne has a tactical character, meaning it is relatively small in scale. Vladyslav Seleznov emphasizes that the Ukrainian army moved in because the enemy retreated, and when the enemy's aviation started operating, the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdrew and consolidated on the outskirts. In his opinion, the further development of the situation depends on the circumstances. Nevertheless, the move toward Opytne, with the prospect of advancing to Spartak right up to Donetsk, has already had a media effect.

Oleksii Hetman agrees that this operation is part of the overall movement on the front.

"The return to Donetsk Airport is important not only from a military but also from a psychological point of view. It has an impact on the morale of the troops and is also a component of military actions. Because a demoralized enemy fights worse or may prefer to surrender," explained an expert to RBC-Ukraine.

He also reminds that the defense of Donetsk International Airport lasted for 242 days from May 2014 to January 2015, and the feats of Ukrainian "cyborgs" became the basis for artistic films.

"When the Russians hear that the 'cyborgs' are back at Donetsk Airport, panic will ensue. They remember very well how they defended the airport. In an emotional sense, our return to the airport will have a bombshell effect," emphasized the expert.

Intensification on the Berdyansk front

Fighting has intensified near the administrative border between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions. It is worth noting that in the first weeks of the summer campaign, Ukrainian forces managed to cut off the Vremivskyi bulge near Velyka Novosilka and liberate a number of populated areas. The latest of these was Urozhaine, in mid-August.

A new offensive began a month later, explained by Russian counterattacks. In some areas, the enemy reclaimed positions, but they were halted by Ukrainian reserves, according to Vladyslav Seleznov. Currently, our disposition is better, as the advance is taking place over a fairly wide front.

News from this direction concerns the villages of Novodonetske and Novomaiorske. The Ministry of Defense confirms partial successes but emphasizes that the situation is highly changeable.

Novodonetske and Novomayorske are becoming hotspots on the southern front (photo deepstatemap.live)

According to the observer from the German Bild, Julian Röpcke, the defense forces entered Novomaiorske and occupied four buildings. The Ukrainian side does not provide such details.

Analysts from DeepState note that last week the enemy tried to establish a presence in the forest, but Ukrainian forces near Novodonetske defeated them and reportedly destroyed at least four tanks.

From the mentioned villages, it's not far to the settlement of Kermenchyk. And near it, there are heights with the Russian defensive line, and successes in this area could lead to another breakthrough.

Oleksii Hetman is confident that the defense forces do not necessarily need to break through Russian lines in multiple places. It is enough to do so in just one area, but in a way that allows movement behind enemy lines. Moreover, breaking through enemy lines is not the primary objective.

"Russian defense lines are built parallel to the Volnovakha - Tokmak - Dzhankoy railway. This is the only railway through which they can transport a large amount of supplies. The Russians are not defending populated areas; they are protecting the railway tracks because, without them, the entire logistics of the southern group will collapse," he said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

According to him, on two fronts leading to Volnovakha and Tokmak (Zaporizhzhia region), there are only 20 kilometers left to advance. Gaining access to the railway to some extent could mean the fulfillment of the goals of the summer-fall campaign.

"When we take control of the railway, in a broad sense, we can say that the objectives of our counteroffensive will be achieved. From my subjective point of view, this will even be a turning point in the war. Especially together with the destruction of the Crimean Bridge, which I am confident will be destroyed. In that case, the Russians will have ammunition for 2-3 months on the peninsula, after which they will have nothing to fight with," Hetman added.

Foothold below Robotyne expanding

Ukrainian forces are moving south and southeast in the Melitopol direction, to the south and southeast of the previously liberated village of Robotyne. According to the General Staff spokesman Andrii Kovalov, they are fortifying new positions, and the enemy is suffering heavy losses.

Here, Ukrainian forces have reached the second line of defense of the Russian Federation. RBC-Ukraine reported that the objective in this area is the occupied town of Tokmak. For more details, read the article "Moment of truth: How the fall starts for the Ukrainian forces and where new breakthrough possible."

The Russian defense beyond Tokmak is less dense, and it is expected that the de-occupation of the town may accelerate the advance to the south. However, to reach it, the foothold needs to be expanded, which is happening in the area of the villages of Novoprokopivka and Verbove.

Ukrainian troops are expanding the foothold in the Melitopol direction (photo deepstatemap.live)

"Our army is expanding the line of contact because the larger the contact area, the lower the enemy's combat density," explains expert Vladyslav Seleznov.

At the same time, the situation there is quite complicated. The Russians have deployed at least four airborne divisions to this area, with two of them being regular divisions.

"This includes the 76th Pskov Division. Most likely, the enemy will now attempt to flank attacks to encircle our most combat-ready units. Will they succeed? We'll see in the coming weeks. Indeed, significant resources have been shifted, but our General Staff clearly understands the situation. They are doing everything to turn any enemy attacks into nothing," he told RBC-Ukraine.

According to DeepState, Ukrainian tanks are operating on the outskirts of Novoprokopivka. This suggests that there is finally room for them, but for effective use, they still need to further open up the flanks.

Last week, nearly 5 square kilometers of territory were liberated in the Tavria direction. Since the beginning of the summer campaign - 256.5 square kilometers.

Boyko Towers under control

The Main Intelligence Directorate conducted a special operation on the so-called Boyko Towers. These are gas extraction platforms in the Black Sea that Russia captured in 2014 and towed closer to the peninsula.

Officially, Ukraine has regained control of the Petro Hodovanets and Ukraine drilling platforms as well as the Tavryda and Syvash self-elevating drilling rigs. For more details on this and why they are called this way, read the article by RBC-Ukraine.

Key facts: Special forces captured missiles for combat helicopters and the Neva radar station. The Russian side used the towers as radar observation posts, allowing them to monitor the area between Crimea and Odesa.

A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy, Dmytro Pletenchuk, explained that the Russian equipment had been dismantled, and the enemy was blinded in the northeastern part of the Black Sea. This is crucial for the safety of the Odesa region.

It's worth noting that reports from the area of the towers came in several weeks ago, including an incident with a Russian Su-30 and the rescue of an intelligence soldier who went overboard. All these episodes are included in the new video report on the intelligence special operation.

"Most likely, defense intelligence reported control over the Boyko Towers when it became clear that the Russians would not be able to return there. What was done for this? Did we replace these towers, or did something that prevented the presence of the enemy army on them? Unknown. In any case, this is an example of an effective operation carried out without air superiority," says Vladyslav Seleznov.

Will Ukraine use them for military purposes? Unlikely.

"For radio technical reconnaissance, we use other capabilities, such as those of our Western partners. If you look at the Flightradar service map now, at least two reconnaissance aircraft are circling over the Black Sea, monitoring our opponent both in the territory of Crimea and in the offshore zone," he concluded.