Hundreds of drones every night: How Russia draining Ukraine's air defense and what happens if US aid stops

Contents:

• How many Shaheeds and other drones Russia produces
• Essence of Russia's tactics
• What will happen to Ukraine's air defense after US support stops

For more than six months now, Russia has been testing a new tactic of Shaheds and other long-range drone attacks. Since September, Russia has been firing drones at Ukraine's rear regions every day, mostly at night.

On the night of February 22-23, Russia launched a record 267 different long-range UAVs into Ukraine. However, this is probably not the limit. By the end of the first half of 2025, Moscow wants to reach 500 UAVs in one attack, according to the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine.

Russia has relied on mass, regularity, as well as changing routes and altitudes. And unfortunately, this tactic sometimes works.

How many Shaheds and other drones Russia produces

Russia was able to adopt Iran's Shahed production technology, scale it up and differentiate it. If a year ago the main long-range drone used by Russia to attack Ukrainian rear areas was the Shahed-136 or the so-called Geran-2, now the range of weapons has expanded.

Now, during one attack, Russia launches, in addition to the classic Shahed, a similar version of the Garpia-A1, and sometimes its simplified version, the Geran-1. In addition, they also launch “dummy” drones, such as the Parodya without a warhead and the Gerbera, which can carry a small warhead or act as a decoy.

“A swarm of these drones flies into our territory every night. And unfortunately, they can rivet them in large numbers. They are relatively cheap, they fly, they have all the necessary elements. And these Parodyas - those that are essentially parodies of Shaheds - can also produce more than a thousand a month,” says one of the interlocutors in the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

According to RBC-Ukraine, Moscow is currently capable of producing about 900 Shahed/Geran-2s, at least a thousand Parodyas, and more than 2,000 Garpia and Gerbera (80% of the total are Gerbera and 20% are Garpia) every month.

Russia has been attacking Ukraine every night for more than six months (photo: PMC Vostok Facebook)

These production volumes explain how Russia manages to maintain the regularity and massiveness of its drone attacks. Starting in September, Russia launched at least 1,300 drones at Ukraine every month, and in some months - more than 2,000.

Currently, Russia can launch these drones from seven locations: from the Chouda training grounds in the occupied Crimea and Navlya in the Bryansk region, and the Khalino airfield in the Kursk region, Primorsko-Akhtarsk in the Krasnodar region, Orel-Yuzhny, Shatalovo in the Smolensk region, and Millerovo in the Rostov region. According to RBC-Ukraine, the Kremlin plans to open five additional sites by mid-2025 to reach a throughput capacity of 500 UAVs per attack.

“Shatalovo is one of the last sites added during the winter. You can see how the number of Shaheds launched per night increased with the addition of this seventh location,” one of the sources explained.

Essence of Russia's tactics

One of the features of the Russian new tactics is massive. Moreover, among this swarm of a hundred or two hundred UAVs, the percentage of false targets - drones without a warhead - can reach 50 percent. However, neither on radar nor during combat operations of air defense forces can it be distinguished whether it is an attack UAV or a simple “dummy”. That's why they need to shoot down both. As a result, this puts an additional burden on mobile fire groups and air defense.

“These dummies like Parodya usually either just fly around, run out of fuel and fall somewhere in the field. They can also be extinguished by electronic warfare and fall somewhere in the field. What is listed in the Ukrainian Air Force's reports as locally lost is usually just these dummies that fell somewhere and didn't explode,” said one of the interlocutors in military circles.

Another peculiarity of Russian tactics is that the Shahed is launched in portions from different locations in the early evening. As a result, while Russian drones begin to approach Ukrainian borders and head towards their target, the combat work on them and the alert begins in the evening and often ends in the early morning. Moreover, sometimes Russia combines the Shahed attacks with rocket attacks that begin in the early hours to achieve even greater effect and put even more strain on Ukrainian air defense. This, for example, was the case during today's Russian attack.

The regularity of alarms and explosions exhausts not only the personnel of the Air Force, but also psychologically and morally exhausts the civilian population. This, according to the Kremlin's plan, should make Ukrainians more compliant.

The majority of long-range UAVs and Shaheds are destroyed by mobile fire groups (photo: GettyImages)

Fourth, because of this massive number, combined with frequent changes in flight routes, Russian drones manage to fly into large cities and sometimes hit their targets. Another Russian trick is to fly drones at ultra-low altitudes (less than 50 meters), for example, over riverbeds. At this time, they disappear from radar and are difficult to track.

The targets of Russian attacks remain unchanged. These are mainly military facilities, defense industry enterprises, the energy system, including substations, and the gas transportation system.

What will happen to Ukraine's air defense after US support stops

A series of unpleasant news from the United States, which allegedly suspended the supply of weapons and intelligence to Ukraine, caused a stir in society not only about what awaits us at the front. But also as to whether Ukraine will be able to shoot down and generally see what Russia is attacking us with and from. Simply put, if a MiG-31K takes to the Russian skies and launches a Kinzhal ballistic missile, will the Ukrainian Air Force know about it? If Russian drones fly from Chauda, will the Ukrainian air defense forces know about it and, most importantly, will they have what it takes to shoot them down?

Regarding the ability of the Ukrainian air defense system to hit Russian targets, this question should be divided into two parts. If the United States stops supplying Ukraine with air support, after a while it will be really difficult for the Ukrainian Air Force to shoot down the missile weapons that Russia is attacking Ukraine with. Anti-aircraft missiles for the Patriot in the MSE version, which can shoot down ballistic missiles, may become especially scarce.

“It could also potentially become difficult for aircraft that launch Western missiles. For example, StormShadow/SCALP. And in general, all the work of HIMARS and work on the territory of Russia or the occupied territories, where satellite coordinates are needed. Other countries also have satellites, for example, France. But the United States has much more,” explained one of the interlocutors.

German Gepard anti-aircraft system used to shoot down the Shahed (photo: RBC-Ukraine, Vitalii Nosach)

However, when it comes to hitting long-range drones, Ukraine is much less dependent on the United States, both in terms of means and in terms of shells or ammunition. As Russia has increased the number of drones it has launched, the Ukrainian Air Force has learned to counter them with cheaper and less scarce means.

Nowadays, most long-range Russian drones are shot down by mobile fire teams armed with large-caliber machine guns such as Degtyarev-Shpagin machine gun, Browning, or Canik, man-portable air defense systems, and anti-aircraft guns, including Soviet ZU-23-2 or German Gepard. Also, a significant number of Russian drones can be neutralized by electronic warfare, small aircraft, and helicopters. Last but not least, Russian drones are countered by short- or medium-range air defense systems provided to Ukraine by the United States.

As for the ability of Ukrainian air defense to see targets, the situation is also optimistic. Three interlocutors in military and political circles explained that Ukraine received data on Russian fighter jet flights, launches of cruise and ballistic missiles, or long-range drones not only from the United States but also from other sources, including NATO centers. They, in turn, did not stop providing Ukraine with this information. Therefore, according to RBC-Ukraine's sources, the Trump administration's possible intelligence demarche will not affect the ability of the Ukrainian air defense system to monitor.