Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy chief spy: Russia still aims for complete occupation or control of Ukraine
Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Major General Vadym Skibitskyi (Photo: RBC-Ukraine, Vitalii Nosach)
Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, talks about Russia's plans at the front, the tactics and goals of Russian shelling and attacks by the Shahed, and the DPRK's participation in the war.
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Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, spoke in an interview with RBC-Ukraine about Russia’s plans on the frontlines, the tactics and targets of Russian missile and drone attacks, and North Korea’s participation in the war.
For several months now, Russia's primary focus has been on the Pokrovsk area. Although Russian occupation forces have managed to advance within just a few kilometers of the city, their offensive appears to have slowed in recent weeks.
Moscow has had slightly more success in the Kursk region, where enemy forces, supported by North Korean soldiers, have been attempting to push Ukrainian units back for more than six months.
At the same time, Russian forces continue to launch swarms of Shahed drones every night against Ukraine’s rear regions, occasionally accompanied by missiles in smaller numbers.
According to Major General Skibitskyi, the main targets of these attacks are сritical infrastructure, energy facilities, gas transportation systems, military installations, and defense industry enterprises.
In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence outlined how Russia has changed its approach to missile strikes and what the enemy is planning on the battlefield.
Putin's goals in the war
The strategic plans of the Russian Federation in the war remain unchanged. The goal is the complete occupation or control of Ukraine, primarily to have a "very powerful ally," says Major General Vadym Skibitskyi. At the same time, the Kremlin aims to ensure that Ukraine and its leadership are either pro-Russian or at least neutral.
"As of today, the main objective set by the Russian Federation for 2025 is the capture of the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the fulfillment of the tasks of the so-called 'special military operation' of the Russian Federation, and maintaining control over the territories that have been occupied — Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, and the occupied Crimea," explained the Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate (DIU).
Skibitskyi also explained that Moscow's initial plans for the occupation of all of Ukraine, which were developed before the full-scale invasion, were disrupted by several factors and events. These included the defense of Kyiv, the prolonged defense of the hero city of Mariupol, and the counteroffensive of the Defense Forces in Kharkiv and Kherson regions. The current phase involves the continuation of defense along the entire frontline, which disrupts Russian plans and their own deadlines for achieving their military objectives.
"They have clearly identified the most critical and pressing directions for their military operations. First and foremost, this includes the Pokrovsk direction, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar to complete all planned operations. Additionally, Kupiansk is another key target. We are aware of the plans that the Russian Federation is setting for itself, including the possibility of conducting assault and offensive operations in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions," Skibitskyi specified.
Size of Russia’s occupation army and contract recruitment
The Russian military contingent on the front remains powerful, says the Deputy Chief of DIU. The ground component consists of over 620,000 servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces stationed in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and in Russia’s Kursk region.
"More than 200,000 of them are assault units directly engaged in combat on the front lines. In addition, there are 35,000 servicemen from the Russian National Guard, who maintain the occupation regime, guard key infrastructure in the occupied territories, and, according to their plans, can be deployed as a second echelon of forces for defense operations," Skibitskyi added.
This number does not include enemy forces responsible for logistical support, units of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, or aviation forces that are not based directly in combat zones but are involved in strikes. According to Skibitskyi, the aggressor is currently using more than 20 airfields and aviation bases inside Russia to conduct both bomb and missile strikes on Ukraine.
Recently, intelligence has observed a decrease in the intensity of combat operations and, most notably, a reduction in direct clashes. Russia is undergoing regrouping and replenishing combat losses, and weather conditions also directly impact the pace of hostilities.
"However, a reduction in combat activity does not mean that the enemy's plans have changed. This time is being used for planning further offensives, training personnel, replenishing ammunition, and preparing for future assaults," explained the deputy intelligence chief.
Russia is actively continuing its campaign to recruit military personnel for its armed forces. In January alone, Russia fulfilled 107% of its recruitment plans. In 2025, the Kremlin aims to recruit another 343,000 contract soldiers.
"But based on the experience of 2024, we know that these plans tend to increase. Last year, their goal was to recruit approximately 375,000-380,000 soldiers, but this later increased to 430,000, and in the end, they recruited 440,000 contract soldiers," Skibitskyi explained.
However, nearly 80% of those recruited under contract are replacements for combat losses.
Additionally, about 30% of the so-called volunteers joining the army are people under criminal investigation, prisoners, or individuals serving suspended sentences. This is becoming a problem for the Russian General Staff — how to handle these individuals and integrate them into military operations.
"In 2024, such recruits — known as the 'special contingent' — made up 15% of new soldiers. In 2025, this number will increase to 30%," said Skibitskyi.
Nevertheless, these soldiers are offered high salaries and significant upfront payments upon signing their first contract. In most Russian regions, this initial payment exceeds 2 million rubles, meaning that a newly contracted Russian soldier, depending on the region, can receive between $20,000 and $25,000 as a lump sum.
Russia’s missile and drone attack tactics on Ukraine
According to Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, the Russians have significantly increased the production of various unmanned aerial vehicles. This allows them to use between 150 and 200 drones per strike. These include Geran-1, Geran-2, Harpy, Gerbera, and Parody. At the same time, the types of drones currently being used include combat strike drones, reconnaissance drones, decoy targets, drones without combat payloads, and imitation targets. All of this overloads Ukraine’s air defense system.
"By the way, their plans include increasing the number of launch sites from which they will launch drones across our territory. According to Russian military calculations, if their plans for the first half of the year are fulfilled, they can launch approximately 500 drones simultaneously," said Major General Skibitskyi.
Regarding missile production, there has been no significant increase compared to 2024. The Russians have started producing more Kh-101 cruise missiles but fewer Kalibr missiles, as they have proven to be less effective for them.
"The enemy also plans to increase the production of Kinzhals and ballistic missiles for the Iskander system — this weaponry has proven to be more effective. But if we talk in absolute numbers, the increase in missile production compared to 2024 is no more than 1.2 times. In some cases, one and a half times if we are talking specifically about high-precision missile weaponry," said the deputy head of military intelligence.
According to him, the objectives of these attacks and strikes remain unchanged. These include the command and control system of the Armed Forces and Defense Forces, everything related to aviation and airfields, and the most critical elements of Ukraine’s infrastructure, including the energy and gas transportation systems, which we are observing now. One of the priorities is also Ukraine’s defense-industrial enterprises, where weapons production has been ramped up, including many types of arms, ammunition, drones, and systems.
"There were strikes on the energy system, and the aggressor has slightly changed its tactics and approaches, which it is now actively using. This approach involves precise target identification and planning— so-called targeting — to achieve the maximum effect.
And recently, our gas transportation system and gas fields have been suffering. The enemy understands that this is what supplies our population and secures our own gas needs. In recent times, they have been attempting to destroy precisely this capability of Ukraine," added Skibitskyi.
He explained that the Russians have also changed their overall approach to planning and conducting missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. First, the attacks have become combined. Second, they are coordinated in time: missiles are launched, then drones, then missiles again. This overloads the air defense system. The Russians understand our capabilities and where our air defense systems are located, and they attempt to bypass them. Additionally, they select priority targets whose destruction will have the greatest effect.
"If earlier, 70 missiles were indeed launched, all following the same route: entering through Luhansk Oblast and heading directly to Kyiv. Now, you will no longer see such a pattern. Missiles come from all directions, fly over Ukrainian territory, circumvent all air defense assets and zones, and attempt to reach their targets.
The latest trend is launching drones in the evening, which start reaching targets in our territory from 11:00 PM until the morning. The attacks continue without interruption, increasing existing threats," intelligence sources said.
North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine
Since mid-December 2024, soldiers from North Korea have been directly participating in combat operations against Ukraine. In the initial phase, they suffered heavy losses — around 4,000 out of 11,000, according to Skibitskyi. After that, they were withdrawn for recovery and rest. However, from the first decade of February, they were once again actively deployed to the front in the Kursk region.
Ukraine's Defense Intelligence is currently trying to determine whether additional forces from North Korea will be sent. So far, North Korean soldiers have only been observed fighting in the Kursk region. However, certain weapon systems from North Korea—primarily 170mm artillery systems and multiple rocket launch systems — have been recorded on Ukrainian territory.
"We have confirmed information that North Korean military personnel provided assistance and participated in planning strikes using their own ballistic missiles, as these are more complex systems. However, this was carried out from Russian territory," Skibitskyi clarified.
He said Russia and North Korea are interested in such a partnership and cooperation. Pyongyang gains access to technologies and the experience of military personnel in conducting modern combat operations. They also transfer their old ammunition stockpiles to Russia while launching new production and simply replenishing their arsenals.
Russia, in turn, receives ammunition of various calibers, including:
- 122mm and 152mm artillery shells
- Rocket projectiles for multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)
This is something the Russian Federation lacks, as Moscow cannot significantly increase the production of these munitions through its own military-industrial complex.
"We are currently recording the continued supply of munitions from North Korea to Russia. They are being transported both by sea and by rail, then directed to storage facilities closer to Ukraine (Moscow Military District, Southern Military District), and from there — directly to the battlefield," added the major general.
