Year's major clash. Zelenskyy-Trump dispute and Europe’s role in resolving it

Contents

• How the escalation between Zelenskyy and Trump unfolded
• What's next – risks for Ukraine
• Europe and Ukraine together

How the escalation between Zelenskyy and Trump unfolded

In just a few days, US President Donald Trump shocked the world three times in relation to Ukraine. First, he called Volodymyr Zelenskyy a "dictator without elections," then "forgot" that he had said such a thing. And a third time yesterday, during a public argument with the Ukrainian president in the White House.

Trump stated that Ukraine would not be able to achieve victory, highlighted the lack of personnel in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and urged Kyiv to cease hostilities. Zelenskyy responded by accusing Russia of failing to uphold previous agreements, which angered Trump. The US president accused the Ukrainian leader of "gambling with World War Three." The confrontation also involved US Vice-President JD Vance.

After the argument, Trump met with advisors in the Oval Office, and Zelenskyy and his delegation were asked to leave the White House early. As a result, the long-discussed deal between Ukraine and the US concerning minerals was not signed.

Was this a prearranged set up by the US, with Trump and Vance playing the roles of the "bad cop" and the "good cop," or did it happen spontaneously?

"I don’t know. It was just a really tough situation because we've been very open, very direct," Zelenskyy said in an interview with Fox News a few hours after the argument.

The Washington Post and The New York Times reported confusion and even chaos surrounding the situation. "Most likely, this was not a planned move by the White House," said Dmytro Sherengovsky, a political scientist and vice-rector of the Ukrainian Catholic University, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine. However, a prejudiced negative attitude toward Ukraine from US Vice-President JD Vance and some American journalists has been well-known for some time.

"This was a situation where those present wanted to demonstrate Trumpian dominance, which they had used before. We saw it with Mexicans, Canadians, and even with the Danes and Greenlanders – it was the same condescending attitude. This was something very characteristic for them," Sherengovsky said.

Zelenskyy and Trump meeting in the Oval Office (Photo: Getty Images)

Notably, Zelenskyy mostly responded correctly to the pressure, letting his emotions out only at the end when the conversation turned to security guarantees in exchange for minerals.

This represents a fundamental disagreement between Ukraine and the US, which emerged early in the agreement’s preparation. The US made it clear that no further negotiations on ending the war would occur without signing the deal. As a result, the sides found a temporary solution: sign a framework agreement now and discuss guarantees later during the preparation of a more substantial agreement. According to RBC-Ukraine, the Ukrainian delegation traveled to Washington optimistically. However, things took a turn as the public part of the conversation in the Oval Office drew to a close.

"Once the situation escalated and Zelenskyy could no longer hold back (and obviously, it’s unclear how any of us would act in that situation), it was already all played out. Both JD Vance and Trump were eager to bring the situation to absurdity," Sherengovsky believes.

There were also tactical miscalculations on Ukraine’s part. Zelenskyy communicated directly with Trump and Vance in English, although it's customary to use a translator in such meetings. The issue wasn’t about language proficiency. A translator gives a few extra seconds to think about a response and may help defuse the situation, avoiding an argument.

Moreover, an unexpected issue with the dress code emerged. Most of the Ukrainian delegation had changed into business suits, but not the Ukrainian president, for whom this is an important symbol. Zelenskyy stated before that he would only wear a suit again after the war ended. However, this time, the dress code became one of the lines of criticism against Zelenskyy.

"Wearing a suit may sound like a small thing, and I know (President Zelenskyy) prefers his military style, but it was the wrong choice," an American official familiar with the negotiations told The New York Post.

What’s next – risks for Ukraine

Immediately after the argument, a White House official told Reuters that Trump does not rule out signing a deal on minerals with Zelenskyy.

Clearly, Trump’s team is interested in the deal for purely mercantile reasons, so this issue is probably not closed definitively and could still be played.

However, regarding negotiations to end the war, a significant shift in emphasis has occurred, one that is very dangerous for Ukraine. After the argument with Zelenskyy, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the Ukrainian president is not interested in peace.

"The drama of this situation is that, before the meeting, Putin was seen as the 'bad guy' who didn’t want to sit at the negotiation table while we were demonstrating that we were ready to sit down, ready to talk. Now, this has flipped. I’m sure the Russians, Trump’s circles, and the White House itself will play it in such a way that it will be portrayed as if Ukraine is actually not ready to negotiate," Sherengovsky noted.

At the same time, the expert is convinced that this was bound to happen sooner or later, given Trump’s narratives, for whom it’s crucial to distance himself from the toxic issue by freezing the conflict as quickly as possible. Earlier, Trump’s team had stated that they viewed providing aid to Ukraine as leverage to force it into negotiations. Now, the issue has resurfaced, but as a real prospect.

"We are no longer going to just write blank checks for a war in a very distant country without a real, lasting peace," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Fox News.

According to The New York Times, the discussion may not only concern direct military aid. It could also involve the exchange of intelligence, the training of Ukrainian troops and pilots, and placing an international aid coordination center at a US base in Germany. According to Reuters, the US had previously threatened to cut Ukraine’s access to the Starlink communication system.

However, the US has not given up on its attempts to end the war, an unnamed Trump administration advisor told Bloomberg. According to him, too many efforts have been invested in trying to achieve a ceasefire deal to give up on it now. Instead, the US will likely increase pressure on Ukraine and avoid direct contact with Zelenskyy.

Europe and Ukraine together

Within hours of the Zelenskyy-Trump conversation, almost all European leaders, except for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, expressed their support for Ukraine. This trend has solidified recently, especially after the Munich Security Conference, when the US made it clear that Europe would not be at the negotiating table regarding the end of the war.

This week, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Washington. The topic of Ukraine was discussed in coordination with Zelenskyy. Furthermore, the leaders of both countries somewhat acted as advocates for Kyiv, also offering Trump different options for how Europe could take on more of the responsibility for assisting Ukraine.

One option is placing European troops in Ukraine. Several statements on this matter have emerged this week. Also, there’s talk about replacing American weapons for Ukraine, something Trump wants. But there are problems. As RBC-Ukraine wrote, Europe, though struggling, may find the funds for this. However, rapidly ramping up production capacities is difficult.

Zelenskyy and Trump meeting in the Oval Office (photo: Getty Images)

"What Europe can help with here is essentially performing, to some extent, the role of mediator between Ukraine and the United States. And convincing Trump that, look, we have a plan, we will take on Ukraine fully, as you want, but we need time," Sherengovsky emphasized.

According to him, if this explanation is accepted and the White House’s support is obtained, then it’s possible that statements about ending aid and providing weapons may remain just that—statements, at least for a while.

"I think in a day or two, they’ll increase the stakes. They’ll shout about how bad Zelenskyy is, but in the end, they will have to reconcile with Zelenskyy and meet. Most likely, it won’t be in the Oval Office, but at some international conference. So, they’ll meet in neutral territory, sign the agreement, and show that, after all, we’re still friends and can work together," said political expert, PhD in philosophy Andriy Horodnytsky in an interview with RBC-Ukraine’s YouTube channel.

A series of European leader meetings are expected in the coming days. On March 2, there will be an informal meeting in London, and on March 6, a special EU summit on security and support for Ukraine. Additionally, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced plans to convene an emergency EU-US summit.

Furthermore, Washington still has other Ukraine sympathizers, not only from the Democratic Party. So, after this failed round of negotiations, it's important to focus on the next one and avoid repeating past mistakes.

Sources: The New York Post, Axios, Reuters, Bloomberg, The Washington Post, The New York Times, as well as comments from Dmytro Sherengovsky and Andriy Horodnytsky.