World Cup 2026: Supercomputer reveals title favorites before knockout rounds
Who has the highest chance of winning (photo: Getty Images)
The world's biggest football tournament is entering its most intense phase as knockout matches begin on North American fields. Artificial intelligence has conducted a detailed analysis of the playoff bracket and assigned each team precise mathematical probabilities of success.
Playoff geography
In the first-ever round of 32, the geographic distribution of participants is striking.
Europe retains the largest representation with 13 national teams. It is followed by Africa with a record nine teams. South America has sent five teams, CONCACAF has sent three, and Asia has sent two.
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Top 10 contenders
According to mathematical projections, the main favorite to win the title is France, with a 18.66% chance of lifting the trophy. Argentina, the reigning champion, ranks second with a 16.26% probability, while Spain completes the top three with 13.47%. Notably, all other teams in the knockout stage fall below the 10% threshold for winning the tournament.
World Cup 2026 favorites according to Opta:
- France – 18.66%
- Argentina – 16.26%
- Spain – 13.47%
- England – 9.68%
- Brazil – 6.47%
- Netherlands – 5.11%
- Portugal – 4.74%
- Germany – 4.36%
- Colombia – 3.19%
- Norway – 2.95%
Mathematical outlook for the Round of 32
In addition to overall tournament-winning odds, analysts also calculated the probability of each matchup advancing to the Round of 16.
The clearest favorites in their respective ties are Argentina (with nearly a 90% chance against tournament debutant Cape Verde), Spain (85.22% against Austria), and England (84.04% against DR Congo). The most balanced and competitive matchup is expected to be between Australia and Egypt, with the chances nearly even.
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Probability of teams advancing to the Round of 16:
- Canada – South Africa: 68.29% – 31.71%
- Brazil – Japan: 68.94% – 31.06%
- Germany – Paraguay: 78.58% – 21.42%
- Netherlands – Morocco: 61.17% – 38.83%
- Côte d’Ivoire – Norway: 32.19% – 67.81%
- France – Sweden: 81.46% – 18.54%
- Mexico – Ecuador: 61.35% – 38.65%
- England – DR Congo: 84.04% – 15.96%
- Belgium – Senegal: 56.91% – 43.09%
- USA – Bosnia and Herzegovina: 78.46% – 21.54%
- Spain – Austria: 85.22% – 14.78%
- Portugal – Croatia: 67.42% – 32.58%
- Switzerland – Algeria: 65.21% – 34.79%
- Australia – Egypt: 46.44% – 53.56%
- Argentina – Cape Verde: 89.24% – 10.76%
- Colombia – Ghana: 71.91% – 28.09%
The major 2026 World Cup knockout marathon kicks off on Sunday, June 28, with a matchup between Canada and South Africa.
Earlier, the full results of the 2026 World Cup group stage were published.
