Will the war in Ukraine end by 2025? ISW experts respond
Illustrative photo: ISW assesses whether silence on the front lines can be achieved by the end of 2025 (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
A full ceasefire on the Ukrainian front is unlikely to be achieved by the end of this year, as Russia remains committed to continuing its military campaign and is not interested in reaching a meaningful agreement, says Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia Analyst and Deputy Team Lead of the ISW analytical group, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Russia will continue offensive operations
According to Stepanenko, Russia will keep pushing its offensive in the Donetsk region and look for weak spots in Ukraine's defense lines.
She added that Russian forces may intensify attacks after Ukraine exhausts the latest round of US presidential aid, allocated in 2024. At that point, Moscow is expected to ramp up offensives in key directions such as Kostiantynivka, Zaporizhzhia, or Sumy regions.
Moscow's summer offensive
ISW believes Russia's summer offensive will likely focus on the Kostiantynivka direction. The enemy may achieve some tactical gains, capturing fields and villages, but significant operational breakthroughs are unlikely.
Stepanenko noted that these offensive efforts are likely part of a broader Kremlin campaign aimed at convincing the West of Russia's "inevitable" victory and discouraging further support for Ukraine.
"Russian forces, however, are unlikely to make large-scale breakthroughs as they continue to sacrifice large numbers of people and military equipment to sustain marginal advances. Russia will likely continue to escalate its drone and missile strike campaign against Ukraine - especially in the winter - in hopes of breaking Ukrainian will and coercing Ukraine into capitulation," she summarizes.
Frontline situation
According to Ukraine's General Staff, 151 combat clashes took place over the past day (June 24), with the fiercest battles reported in the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka sectors.
Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukrainian forces have eliminated over 1,014 million Russian troops. Just in the last 24 hours, another 950 Russian soldiers were killed.
