Why haven’t aliens contacted Earth? Scientists have explanation
New study explains the enduring mystery of the absence of extraterrestrial life (photo: Pexels)
Alien civilizations may disappear before they ever manage to make contact with humanity — a new study offers an unusual explanation for the Fermi paradox. Scientists suggest that technological societies may regularly go through cycles of collapse and revival, according to a study published on the arXiv preprint server.
The Great Silence: Could aliens be silent due to technological hibernation?
Scientists explained that the Fermi paradox points to a contradiction between the high probability of extraterrestrial life existing and the lack of any evidence of contact with it.
Researchers led by Celia Blanco focused on the second common hypothesis — technological civilizations are usually short-lived because of self-destruction caused by environmental crises or conflicts.
However, self-destruction does not necessarily mean complete disappearance.
The authors of the simulation suggest that the Universe may be filled with civilizations that rise, fall, rebuild themselves, and spend long periods in technological hibernation.
"If other intelligent beings spend only a small part of their time in an active state, the probability of their active periods overlapping becomes minimal," the researchers note.
Future scenarios and survival cycles
The researchers created a new model of Earth's possible technological future by simulating ten different scenarios over the next 1,000 years.
They ranged from a stable and egalitarian "Golden Age" to societies facing severe resource shortages.
Some interesting examples include:
"Golden Age" and "Out of Eden" society — stable models in which technological growth occurred without collapses.
"Ouroboros" — a hierarchical civilization that continually expands, collapses, and recovers, eventually making it self-stabilizing.
"Living with the land" — a low-impact culture with frequent deep collapses and an activity rate of only around 38%.
For each scenario, the scientists ran 200 simulations. They found that 7 out of 10 scenarios inevitably experienced collapse in every run.
Lessons for Earth and key caveats
The analysis showed that two parameters have the greatest impact on the long-term sustainability of a civilization — the rate of resource consumption and the amount of resources that can be restored after a disaster.
This points to very Earth-based solutions — reducing consumption, preserving infrastructure, and creating recovery kits similar to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault.
At the same time, the authors emphasize significant limitations of the study. The model is based on human organizational structures and makes simplified assumptions, and the study has not yet undergone full peer review.
