What's at stake if Ukraine gives up the rest of Donbas to Putin? ISW warns
Photo: The iconic stele at the entrance to Donetsk region (Getty Images)
Russian President Vladimir Putin's demand to pull Ukrainian troops out of the Donetsk region is strategically and tactically harmful to Ukraine. The Defense Forces would lose long-established, fortified positions built over the years, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts say new frontlines along Donetsk's administrative borders would give Russian forces better conditions to launch attacks on Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions if fighting resumes.
The ISW warns Russia will almost certainly break any future ceasefire or peace deal. Without solid security guarantees for Kyiv, Moscow will continue its military aggression.
Photo: Territory Putin aims to seize (ISW maps)
"Forcing Ukraine to concede the remainder of the western part of the Donetsk region to Russia would bring Russian forces 82 kilometers further west in Ukraine... It would set favorable conditions for the Russians to attack Ukrainian positions in the Kharkiv region on the east bank of the Oskil River in renewed fighting," the ISW states.
Gaining a base in Sloviansk would allow Russia to advance toward Izium along the E-40 highway, increasing the threat to Kharkiv.
The distance to Izium would be just over 20 kilometers. Defending these areas would be extremely difficult for Ukrainian forces due to sparse settlements and open fields.
Russia could also avoid the heavy losses it would face trying to bypass the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. It would capture Ukrainian fortifications along the Dobropillia-Bilozerske-Novodonetske-Oleksandrivka line without a fight. This northern Donetsk defense line was prepared well before the war.
"The Dobropillia line is Ukraine's last north-to-south defensive line, comprised of several towns and cities before the Dnipro City line in central the Dnipropetrovsk region," the ISW says.
Photo: Dobropillia-Bilozerske-Novodonetske-Oleksandrivka defense line (ISW maps)
If Donetsk falls here, Pavlohrad — 70 kilometers from the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border — would become the main Defense Forces defensive hub.
"Most significant water features along the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk region border also flow east to west, making them relatively ineffective defensive positions against Russian advances from the east. Conceding the remains of the Donetsk region would thus also provide Russian forces more advantageous positions from which to attack into the Dnipropetrovsk region," the ISW concluded.
Putin's demands are extensive but unrealistic
Putin offered US President Donald Trump a ceasefire plan for Ukraine. He aims to keep the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as the occupied territories in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, all in exchange for simply stopping the fighting.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Putin aims to repeat the Crimea scenario — trading a war pause for keeping occupied lands. But Ukraine will not give up its territory and is preparing to respond to prevent the country's division.
The Wall Street Journal reports that European countries and Ukraine proposed their own peace plan. It rejects any Russian territorial claims and calls first for an unconditional ceasefire, then peace talks.
