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Western intelligence forecasts minimum 2 more years of war in Ukraine, CNN

Western intelligence forecasts minimum 2 more years of war in Ukraine, CNN Illustrative photo (Photo: Getty Images)
Author: Daria Shekina

Western intelligence agencies predict that Russia's war against Ukraine will last at least another two years. A new counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is also expected, according to CNN.

Duration of the war

According to the news agency, American and Western intelligence agencies suggest that Russia's war against Ukraine will last "for much longer," regardless of what happens in U.S. politics this year.

"Assessments vary, but virtually all of them assume that there will be at least two more years of fighting, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence — long enough to outlast Biden’s first term," said sources familiar with intelligence data.

However, as CNN notes, in private conversations, some American and Western officials suggest that the fighting in Ukraine could last another five years.

Against this backdrop, American officials, including some Republicans, are seeking to approve new funding for Ukraine ahead of the presidential elections.

Possible counteroffensive

As an unnamed American official told CNN, in 2024, Ukraine will work on strengthening its defense industry and rebuilding its forces before 2025.

"That’s why continued Western support is so critical, as this next year will be when everything is done that will decide how 2025 and possibly beyond play out," he emphasized.

Another unnamed American military official noted that a new attempt at a major Ukrainian counteroffensive to break the Russians in Melitopol will occur at least in two years.

"Both sides are 'too exhausted in terms of troops and equipment to see huge moves in 2024'," he clarified.

The official also added that Ukrainians are discussing 2025 as a "more feasible option in terms of what they can generate to start another offensive."

NATO's forecasts on the war's

Duration Deputy NATO Secretary-General Mircea Geoană previously suggested that Russia's war against Ukraine might not end even in 2025.

According to him, the Alliance does not see the military potential for either side to achieve victory by one means or another.