War of attrition? Putin's 'theory of victory' explained by ISW

On Friday, June 7th, during his speech at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin introduced his so-called theory of victory. It envisages that occupying forces can continue their gradual, creeping advance to enable a war of attrition.

This was reported by RBC-Ukraine, referring to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Putin asserts that Russia does not need to conduct another call-up of reservists similar to the partial mobilization in September 2022, as Russia allegedly is not seeking quick paths to victory. He assured Russians that there will be no further wave of mobilization.

Putin's theory is based on the assumption that Ukrainian forces will not be able to liberate significant territory, while Russian forces will achieve gradual tactical successes despite heavy losses.

Putin's assessment is reinforced by recent delays in Western assistance. ISW analysts also believe that restrictions on Western support will encourage Putin to continue creeping operations on the front. However, this strategy also relies on Russia's ability to maintain initiative across the entire front line. According to experts, Ukrainian forces could regain the initiative by addressing issues with human resources and weaponry.

"Russian efforts to prevent Ukraine from accumulating the personnel and resources Ukraine needs to contest the initiative therefore are a part of an attritional war approach," the report states.

Frontline situation

In recent months, Russian forces have intensified attacks. Occupying forces are actively attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk region. The most intense battles are ongoing in the Pokrovsk and Khorlivka directions.

Additionally, Russians continue their advance in northern Kharkiv region. The General Staff reported that the occupiers have been halted, and they are embroiled in street fighting in Vovchansk.