War in Ukraine could last for years, warns French report

In addition to active hostilities in Ukraine, new Russian offensive operations near Europe are also possible — in Moldova, the Balkans, and even against NATO member states.

This is stated in France's Strategic National Review through 2030, published on the official government website.

The document emphasizes that Europe must prepare for "the risk of open warfare against the heart of Europe," while acknowledging that the United States will not be actively involved in regional security.

"The greatest risk would be that such aggression could coincide with a major operation elsewhere in the world, diverting US forces," the document says.

It also warns that the most dangerous scenario would be a simultaneous large-scale Russian aggression in Europe and another region, which would significantly divert US efforts.

Threat from Russia

France's main objectives for the coming decade include strengthening the country's material and moral capabilities, ensuring readiness to counter destabilizing actions on its own territory, and enhancing its overall defense capacity.

To achieve this, the government plans to significantly increase defense spending in order to rearm its military and boost national resilience in the face of high-intensity warfare.

"Russia itself describes Europe as an enemy," the document notes, adding that "explicit and direct threats" are increasing. The prioritization of this threat places Europe in a situation of long-term confrontation imposed by Russia.

Previously, the international agency Fitch Ratings noted that the stated goal of the US administration to end the war could lead to a negotiated ceasefire. However, a full peace agreement remains unlikely due to the deeply irreconcilable positions of Russia and Ukraine.

In March, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its baseline scenario, according to which Russia's war against Ukraine will end by the end of 2025.