US warns of risks in case of lifted restrictions on Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory
Illustrative photo (Getty Images)
US intelligence believes that Russia may escalate aggression against the United States and its allies if Ukraine is allowed to use Western missiles for strikes deep inside Russian territory. This previously undisclosed assessment was shared by American officials who requested anonymity, citing The New York Times.
According to intelligence, Ukraine's limited stock of missiles may diminish their strategic significance on the battlefield, and uncertainty regarding future supplies raises questions about the real impact of these missiles on the conflict’s outcome. This issue is currently under review by US President Joe Biden, who recently discussed the situation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
One of the main risks is Russia's potential response, including possible attacks on American and European targets, as well as acts of sabotage in Europe. However, intelligence believes Moscow would act covertly to avoid open confrontation with the West.
Zelenskyy has both publicly and privately lobbied for the right to use missiles to extend the war deeper into Russian territory.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin frequently resorts to threats to dissuade the US and its coalition partners from providing Ukraine with more advanced weapons systems.
Meanwhile, critics of Biden and his advisors argue that they are too easily intimidated by Putin's hostile rhetoric. They claim that the administration’s gradual approach to arming Ukraine puts Kyiv at a disadvantage on the battlefield. Supporters of this strategy argue that it has largely helped to prevent a harsh Russian response, though this may no longer hold true.
The United Kingdom has already expressed its willingness to provide missiles for strikes on Russian targets but is waiting for a final decision from the US.
American military and officials who support the supply of missiles believe that strikes on Russian bases and ammunition depots could weaken Russia's military capabilities but acknowledge that this may not be enough to decisively change the course of the war.
While President Biden has yet to make a final decision, there are concerns that providing missiles could lead to a serious escalation from Moscow.
In their assessments, US intelligence services also express doubts that even if Ukraine is allowed to use long-range missiles, they would have enough to significantly alter the course of the war.
According to officials, after the initial strikes, Russians would likely relocate ammunition depots, command posts, combat helicopters, and other critical battlefield assets out of missile range.
Under Biden’s directive, the US military could provide more ATACMS to Ukraine. However, officials indicate that US military reserves of these missiles are limited, and they need to maintain a stockpile for their own potential military needs.
Strikes deep into Russia
Ukraine’s allies are once again considering lifting restrictions on Ukrainian forces' use of long-range weapons for strikes on Russia. The US still maintains its ban, and the UK’s stance remains unchanged.
Despite reports from The Guardian suggesting that the US and US have already made a decision but have not announced it publicly, there is no official confirmation.
The Washington Post reports that the US doubts the effectiveness of strikes on Russian territory, believing that Ukraine has not provided enough compelling evidence to support such a strategy.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is confident that allies will eventually allow strikes deep into Russia, but this decision ultimately depends on the US.
