US intel sees no signs of Iran regime collapse soon — Axios
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (photo: Getty Images)
US intelligence sources believe the Iranian regime is facing a profound crisis, though there are no indications it is on the verge of collapse, Axios reports.
Three sources report that a closed hearing took place on March 19 in the House Intelligence Committee.
At the meeting, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Gen. James Adams stated that the Iranian regime is undergoing a severe governance and control crisis, but there are no signs of an inevitable collapse.
Two senior Iranian officials said that the assassination of Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, widened the power vacuum, which is now largely filled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
They also said that the elevation of Khamenei's son Mojtaba to Supreme Leader was possible due to his close ties with the IRGC, which wields enormous influence over Iran's economy, politics, and security, and effectively controls the country.
"The IRGC are taking over Iran and they are crazy. They are highly ideological and are ready to die and meet Khamenei Senior," a senior Arab official said.
Concerning the US intelligence briefing, Ratcliffe and Adams emphasized that it is still too early to determine whether the Iranian regime can survive the war and the loss of so many senior leaders.
Israel, meanwhile, has made it clear that creating conditions for regime change is one of its military objectives.
"We think that the more we increase the external pressure on them, it will increase the internal pressure. The more that happens the bigger the chances are that the regime breaks down," a senior Israeli official said.
Contested Iranian leadership
As part of the military campaign against Iran, Israel and the United States eliminated nearly the entire top leadership of the regime.
Shortly afterward, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the former leader Ali, was appointed the new Supreme Leader. However, questions remain. On March 20, Mojtaba issued his second statement since his appointment, but he has not appeared in public. That statement only heightened suspicions about his condition.
Earlier media reports suggested he required urgent surgery due to injuries. In connection with this, and amid the threat of further strikes, he was reportedly secretly transported to Moscow, where he allegedly receives treatment at one of Putin's residences.
Meanwhile, the CIA and Mossad are trying to determine Mojtaba's exact whereabouts and real health status.
