Ukrainian drones shift war's course, even Russia admits edge — ISW
Photo: FlyEye drone, Ukrainian military (facebook.com)
The Ukrainian military has gained a significant advantage over Russian forces in the use of drones, which is already influencing the course of hostilities. Even Russia has acknowledged Ukraine’s superiority, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukraine’s drone advantage thwarts Russian offensive
As analysts note, Ukraine has significantly intensified its medium-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and personnel since late 2025 and especially in early 2026, which has hindered Russia’s advance across the entire theater of operations and likely also hindered the Russian offensive in the spring and summer of 2026.
ISW has obtained geolocation evidence that Ukrainian forces carried out 41 medium-range strikes in January 2026, 61 in February 2026, and 115 in March 2026.
These Ukrainian strikes were largely directed against Russian forces and assets in eastern and southern Ukraine, particularly near occupied Donetsk, which has hampered Russia’s preparations for offensive operations in recent weeks and months.
Analysts note that, according to Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi’s remarks on April 9, Ukrainian drone forces are conducting over 11,000 combat sorties per day and struck over 150,000 verified targets in March 2026 alone, 50 percent more than in February 2026.
He noted that Ukrainian forces carried out over 350 medium-range strikes, including 143 against Russian logistics facilities and warehouses, 52 against command posts, and 20 against oil, gas, and energy infrastructure facilities.
What Russia says
Even within the Russian media sphere, people are beginning to acknowledge the changes on the battlefield. Russian propaganda sources report on the growing impact of Ukrainian technology and tactics, including elements of air superiority achieved through the use of drones.
Experts write that, according to a Russian military blogger, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov told Vladimir Putin that Ukraine has a significant technological advantage in the drone war on the front lines.
"Belousov allegedly stated that the situation is "critical" for Russian forces as Ukraine both has numerical superiority in drones and has developed a new "generation of equipment". Belousov allegedly told Putin that Ukraine was using "more sophisticated systems" that Russian forces are "largely unprepared" to counter," the article states.
The Kremlin already views the development of its own drone technologies as one of its key priorities.
However, the ISW emphasizes that the veracity of these statements cannot be independently confirmed.
Nevertheless, it is clear that Ukraine’s technological advantage is becoming one of the key factors in the war, shifting the balance of power and complicating Russia’s future offensive plans, analysts note.
Earlier, Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of the Office of the President, also spoke about the growing role of drones in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
According to him, during the fighting in the Kursk region, the Russians had air superiority, which allowed them to intensify their operations. However, the situation has now changed.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov also recently reported that in March, Ukrainian interceptor drones destroyed a record-breaking total of over 33,000 Russian drones. This is twice as many as in February.
Meanwhile, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi previously stated that as early as January, Ukrainian drones had destroyed nearly 30,000 Russian troops, which exceeded the mobilization rate in Russia and created a technological advantage on the battlefield.
