Ukraine will lack 4.5 million workers - Ministry of Economy
Illustrative photo (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
The demographic situation in Ukraine, and in particular the availability of labor resources, has a significant impact on the economy today and will affect its growth dynamics in the future, according to Deputy Economy Minister Tetiana Berezhna.
During a meeting with IMF representatives, she said that due to the war, Ukrainians going abroad, and internal migration, there is a staff shortage and structural unemployment in the country. While in 2021 the official labor market had 11.5 million workers, in 2023 this figure dropped to 9 million officially employed.
"According to preliminary estimates, we need 4.5 million additional employees to ensure annual growth of the Gross Domestic Product by 7% by 2030," Berezhna said.
First Deputy Minister Oleksii Sobolev said during the meeting that GDP grew by 4.1% in the first six months of the year, and growth for the year is expected to reach 3.5%.
"As for the forecast macroeconomic indicators for 2025-2027, the baseline scenario recently approved by the government takes into account both security factors and other factors, some of which stem from the security situation," Sobolev said.
The NBU expects migrants to return to Ukraine in 2025-2026, but rather slowly. In 2024, further outflow of external migrants (about 200 thousand people) is expected.
Migration abroad from Ukraine intensified in May-June: the number of migrants increased to 6.6 million as of June 13, 2024.
