Ukraine's grain harvest under threat: First forecast warns of 10%
Photo: Ukraine's grain harvest could decline in 2025 (Getty Images)
Ukraine's grain harvest in 2025 may fall by 10% to 51 million tons, compared to 56.7 million tons in 2024. This is the first official forecast, Reuters reports, citing Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval.
As the media outlet notes, Ukraine is a global producer of grain and oilseeds, but the harvest heavily depends on favorable weather conditions both during autumn sowing and in the spring months.
Military risks associated with the ongoing Russian invasion are also reducing output, as many farmers are either afraid or unable to plant and harvest. Significant areas have also been occupied or mined.
Tough season ahead
"A difficult season awaits us. An abnormally warm winter, first there was no humidity, then prolonged rains delayed the sowing campaign in some regions for two weeks. Therefore, we expect a decrease in the harvest," Koval said.
According to the Ukrainian Agriculture Minister, the most pessimistic forecast is minus 10%. "According to expectations the harvest of grain is minus 10%, oilseeds minus 5%. It's definitely not a failure, but God willing we will harvest everything," Koval said.
Giving the first detailed forecast, for 2025 Minister said Ukraine could harvest around 26 million tons of corn, 4,5 million tons of barley, 1,5 million tons of minor grains, 11,5 million tons of sunflower seeds, and 11 million tons of sugar beet.
The wheat harvest could range from 20 to 22 million tons, with the final figure depending on weather and war-related factors.
Koval added that the total oilseed crop in 2025 could decrease to 20.16 million tons, down from 21.18 million tons in 2024, due in part to a 600,000-ton drop in rapeseed production.
Meanwhile, Ukraine remains the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil.
Exports from Ukraine
Ukrainian Agriculture Minister declined to provide a forecast for grain exports for the 2025/26 marketing year, citing uncertainty in final harvest figures. However, analysts estimate exports will total 40.9 million tons, including 15–15.5 million tons of wheat.
Last week, an ASAP Agri Analyst said wheat exports from Ukraine are expected to decline in the 2025/26 season (July-June), due to potential changes in EU import policy, uncertain harvest prospects, and better crop outlooks in EU importing countries.
Poor grain and crop yields last year caused a spike in inflation in Ukraine, which reached 15.1% by April.
The National Bank of Ukraine currently expects price growth to slow down in the summer as new-season crops begin to arrive on the market.
