Ukraine holds Pokrovsk, drones and counterattacks disrupt Russian plans - ISW

Russian forces are pursuing three separate tactical objectives on the Pokrovsk front, but Ukrainian drones and local counterattacks continue to complicate Russian progress in the region.

Major Viktor Trehubov, a spokesperson for the Khortytsia operational-tactical group, stated on April 7 that Russian forces are trying to cut off the T-0504 highway between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka to the northeast, bypass the city from the west, and advance toward Novopavlivka to the southwest.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces have had limited success advancing to the northeast along the T-0504 and to the southwest toward Novopavlivka.

However, the enemy is also trying to push south and southwest of Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces have concentrated most of their counterattacks in February, March, and early April 2025.

North of Pokrovsk

To the north of Pokrovsk, the ongoing offensive is part of Russia's efforts to encircle the city from the east and west, while also trying to pressure Kostiantynivka from the south along the T-0504 highway.

Reports indicate that Russia deployed additional units for offensive operations in the east and northeast of Pokrovsk since the beginning of 2025, but the enemy has only achieved limited success in advancing toward Kostiantynivka, having only advanced 5–7 kilometers north of Vozdvizhanka in the past two months.

The ISW noted that Russia might deploy more forces and shift priorities for their offensive operations to the northeast of Pokrovsk if they make significant progress from Toretsk toward Kostiantynivka.

South and Southwest of Pokrovsk

To the south and southwest of Pokrovsk, the situation remains dynamic, with increasing Russian offensive operations and local counterattacks from Ukrainian forces, including drone operations in the area.

Since mid-March 2025, Russian forces have intensified their offensive operations to encircle Pokrovsk and capture the city, along with Myrnohrad. However, they have not achieved significant success since the end of autumn 2024 due to local Ukrainian counterattacks and drone operations.

Recently, Ukrainian forces have made slight progress to the west of Kotlyne (southwest of Pokrovsk) and northeast of Shevchenkove (south of Pokrovsk). The ISW reminded that in late January and early February 2025, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched local counterattacks and made limited gains south of Pokrovsk near Shevchenkove and Pishchane, as well as southwest of the city near Kotlyne and Nadiivka.

However, Ukrainian forces were unable to secure these areas, and in recent weeks, Russian troops have slowly regained most of the ground lost to the Ukrainian military south and southwest of Pokrovsk.

Western Front

On the western front of Pokrovsk, Russian losses in equipment have tripled since the beginning of US, Ukrainian, and Russian negotiations for a ceasefire.

In recent weeks, Russian forces have made slight progress toward the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions due to mechanized attacks, particularly west of Preobrazhenka (southwest of Pokrovsk). However, as of the latest report, the Russians have not advanced the remaining three kilometers into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Key factor - drones

The ISW believes that Russian forces have achieved only limited success on the Pokrovsk front, largely due to localized Ukrainian counterattacks and the superior integration of Ukrainian ground forces and drones. Historically, the Russian military has attempted to conduct and link various offensive operations across Ukraine, but Ukrainian drones complicate these efforts even further.

Russian military bloggers have repeatedly stated that Ukrainian drones have air superiority at low altitudes, forcing Russian troops to rotate on foot over distances exceeding 10 kilometers, which hampers the supply of ammunition, water, and fuel.

The ISW has previously pointed out that Ukrainian drones have played a crucial role in defending against Russian advances on the Pokrovsk front and along the entire front line over the past year. While Ukraine still faces challenges related to morale, troop formation, and training, the ISW believes that these issues need to be addressed to fully halt the Russian advance in the Donetsk region.

Colossal losses and Putin's stubborn intentions

The report also highlights that over the last 13 months, the Russian army has lost more than five tank divisions and thousands of soldiers during its attempts to capture Pokrovsk and advance on the city.

Current Russian offensive operations to capture Pokrovsk and push toward Kostiantynivka underscore President Vladimir Putin's determination to conquer all of Ukraine through military means, regardless of the cost, if negotiations fail.

The ISW previously assessed that Russia's defense-industrial base (DIB) cannot produce new armored vehicles and artillery systems fast enough to replace the current pace of Russian losses in the medium- and long-term.

The report states that future Russian attacks on Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and further within the region would only result in greater losses of manpower and material assets if Russian forces are even able to conduct such operations after significant losses of armored vehicles and personnel over the last three years of combat.

Despite these losses, the ISW believes that Putin and the Russian military command appear determined to capture Pokrovsk and attack Kostiantynivka. In doing so, they aim to capture a defensive belt (a 50-kilometer line of four cities: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka), which could take Russia several years to accomplish, assuming continued Western support for Ukraine.

The ISW maintains that Putin is not interested in ending the war and intends to continue fighting until he achieves his goals in Ukraine, which include overthrowing the current government and completely destroying the Ukrainian military.

Frontline updates and Russian attacks

Regarding the situation on the frontline and Russian attacks, the Ukrainian General Staff reported 135 combat encounters on April 8, with the most active engagements taking place on the Pokrovsk front, as well as near Lyman, Toretsk, and in the Kursk region.

During the previous night, Russians attacked Ukraine with Shahed kamikaze drones.

In Dnipro, fires broke out due to drone strikes, causing damage to residential buildings and gas infrastructure.

In Kharkiv, 20 drone strikes were recorded, resulting in fires in several districts and damage to buildings.