Ukraine faces demographic crisis: 40% of working-age population lost
Demographic crisis - Ukraine has lost 40% of its working-age population (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
According to the National Bank and the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine has lost around 40% of its working-age population due to the war. Currently, approximately 1.7 million Ukrainians who were previously employed in the country are now living abroad, said First Deputy Minister of Social Policy Daria Marchak, as reported by Delo.ua.
According to her, Ukraine is currently experiencing a deep demographic crisis, marked by a rapid aging of the population. The share of people aged 65 and older increased from 12% in 1991 to 18% in 2021, and reached 22% in 2024.
At the same time, due to these demographic shifts, the number of working-age people in Ukraine has dropped by 40% compared to the pre-war year of 2021.
Due to the challenges and threats caused by the prolonged war, demographers predict that Ukraine's population could decline to 28.9 million by 2041, and further to 25.2 million by 2051.
"Demographics are significantly reshaping and impacting the labor market. Seventy-four percent of employers report staff shortages, and the average personnel deficit in companies is around 15%," Marchak emphasized.
The Deputy Minister also pointed out that the trend of population aging in Ukraine will continue. Currently, only 27% of people over the age of 50 are employed. However, to support economic recovery, Ukraine needs an additional 4 to 5 million workers.
Marchak also believes that, amid the demographic crisis, ageism — discrimination based on age — must be eradicated in Ukraine. According to her, 69% of men and 67% of women aged 50 and over have faced ageism, with employers often favoring younger candidates.
"Older people are less likely to seek employment, and that's a serious problem, because they need to be brought into the labor market. It's crucial to ensure equal treatment for all job seekers," she stated.
Population forecasts for Ukraine
Back in April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's population to 33.9 million by 2030. Meanwhile, the UN's baseline scenario projects that Ukraine's population could shrink to 15.2 million by the year 2100.
According to data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, as of January 1, 2022, the number of young people in Ukraine was 9.969 million, accounting for 24.3% of the total population.
