Ukraine enters most difficult phase of war - NYT
Photo: social benefits in Ukraine are among the lowest in Europe (Getty Images)
Ukraine is entering the most difficult period of the war from an economic perspective. Russia is intensifying strikes on facilities that ensure the functioning of the Ukrainian economy, attempting to damage production, logistics, and business, according to The New York Times.
According to the NYT, the war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine is increasingly shifting into the economic sphere. Moscow and Kyiv are attacking industrial enterprises, logistics facilities, and commercial infrastructure, seeking to weaken each other's economic capabilities.
Ukrainian officials describe the intensified Russian campaign as a "total war," as strikes are increasingly directed not only at military targets but also at reducing production, disrupting supply chains, and causing job losses.
Russia has expanded the list of targets for attacks. These include warehouses, ports, railway infrastructure, border crossings, and vessels. Recently, internet infrastructure also came under attack, leaving about 100,000 households without access to relevant services.
A separate problem for the economy has become prolonged air raid alerts. Due to them, enterprises are forced to stop work, and consumers spend a significant amount of time in shelters. This directly affects sales and economic activity.
Ukraine's economy is slowing down
Against the backdrop of intensified attacks, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) lowered its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2026 from 2.2% to 1.5% on September 24.
At the same time, some economists suggest that by the end of the year, the Ukrainian economy may not demonstrate any growth at all.
EBRD Chief Economist Dimitar Bogov stated that due to labor shortages and intensified shelling, Ukraine is entering the most difficult period of the war.
According to him, the purchasing power of the population remains relatively high, but people are effectively unable to spend money fully due to constant attacks and disruptions in the economy's operation.
According to estimates by the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy, economic losses from the Russian campaign could reach about $10 billion by the end of the year. A significant part of the losses is associated not directly with the destruction of facilities, but with lost sales, working days, and logistical problems.
Russia strikes logistics and exports
Ukraine's railway infrastructure is suffering serious losses. Before the start of the full-scale war, the country had about 1,800 locomotives, but about 500 of them have already been lost.
According to data cited in the article, Ukraine is currently losing approximately one locomotive per day on average.
Strikes on port infrastructure, railways, border crossings, and vessels are also complicating exports.
In the summer, Russian attacks were directed, in particular, at grain storage facilities to reduce Ukraine's ability to store the harvest. As a result, the European Union is supplying Ukraine with mobile grain storage units.
As is known, for Ukrainian businesses, the intensification of attacks means the need to adapt. Companies are moving warehouses to distributed and underground premises, seeking alternative logistics routes, and trying to reduce dependence on large facilities that could become targets for Russian strikes.
At the same time, Ukraine continues to strike the Russian economy, particularly the oil sector. Ukrainian drones are attacking oil refineries and other commercial facilities in Russia.
Thus, the war is increasingly turning into a confrontation of economies, in which the parties are trying not only to achieve military goals but also to create maximum economic costs for the enemy.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated the day before that the $27 billion budget deficit of the Ministry of Defense partially relates to monetary compensation for military personnel, but mainly to funds for drones and missiles.
