Ukraine aid, Russia sanctions, and pressure on Trump: What US midterms could change
Photo: A session of the US Congress (Getty Images)
The results of the US congressional elections could shift the balance of power regarding Ukraine. Democrats will have more opportunities to put pressure on President Donald Trump and push for aid, according to RBC-Ukraine's article.
As Volodymyr Dubovyk, director of the Center for International Studies at Odesa National University, explains, if the Democrats win a majority in the US House of Representatives, they will be able to influence the White House's position on the war, Ukraine, and Russia to a certain extent.
At the same time, foreign policy remains within the purview of the US President. However, Congress also has tools with which it can influence the administration’s decisions.
"For example, we will almost certainly see hearings and investigations in the relevant committees, with administration officials summoned to testify. Questions related to Ukraine will certainly be raised. In particular, issues involving developments in recent weeks, Starlink, intelligence sharing, the diesel deal, and so on," Dubovyk notes.
Investigations into the economic ties between Trump's inner circle and Moscow could become a separate focus. At the same time, this is not the only way Democrats will be able to advance the issue of support for Ukraine.
Will Democrats be able to secure new aid for Ukraine?
The House of Representatives may return to considering bills on support for Ukraine.
"Essentially, the House already passed a bill supporting Ukraine several months ago, but it did not move any further. They could revisit it, introduce a new one, or even revise the Graham-Blumenthal bill to include mandatory sanctions and aid to Ukraine, although the latter is unlikely," Dubovyk adds.
That said, one shouldn't expect a Democratic victory to automatically change Trump's stance. According to Dubovyk, the President is unlikely to revise his approach to these issues. Instead, Democrats may criticize him more actively and use the Ukraine issue to exert political pressure.
This doesn't necessarily mean that all members of the Democratic Party want to help Ukraine. Some of them may raise these issues primarily as a way to attack the President and his administration.
In addition, it is potentially possible that Democrats could trade certain investigations against the Trump administration for increased support for Ukraine. Such agreements are not unusual in situations where Congress and the White House are controlled by different parties.
At the same time, Dubovyk does not believe that members of the far-left wing of the Democratic Party will be able to significantly weaken its pro-Ukrainian stance. In his assessment, progressives are unlikely to want to, or have enough influence to, undermine the party's overall policy toward Ukraine.
What will change if Democrats gain control of Senate
Another possible scenario is that the Democrats will win a majority not only in the House of Representatives but also in the Senate. In that case, it will be easier for them to advance their own initiatives, particularly those concerning Ukraine.
Control of both chambers of Congress will give the party more opportunities to pass legislation and implement its political agenda. This could apply to both additional aid to Ukraine and other issues related to the Trump administration’s foreign policy.
In theory, such a balance of power could also facilitate the process of impeaching the president. However, according to Dubovyk, there are currently no signs that the Democrats plan to use this mechanism.
"If Democrats suddenly win a majority in the Senate as well, it will simply be easier for them to pursue their goals, including on all the issues I have already mentioned. For example, passing legislation and so on. In purely theoretical terms, that would probably also make it somewhat easier to initiate impeachment proceedings, but it seems Democrats are not planning to do that this time," Dubovyk concludes.
US Congressional elections
Today, November 3, midterm congressional elections began in the US, the results of which will determine who will control both chambers for the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency.
The White House is already looking for ways to implement Donald Trump's agenda without going through Congress.
At the same time, NATO fears that a possible Republican defeat could provoke new attacks by the US President on the Alliance, a reduction in the US military contingent in Europe, and a curtailment of support for Ukraine.
However, after the election, the number of Ukraine's supporters in the new Congress may decrease: some lawmakers are not running for reelection, while others have lost their primaries or risk losing their seats based on the election results.
