Trump's trump card. Why illegal migration issue is important in US election

Content:

• Why illegal immigration is problem for US
• Democrats’ immigration policy and Kamala Harris
• What Republicans and Donald Trump say about immigration problem

Why illegal immigration is problem for US

The US has always been a nation of immigrants. According to the Pew Research Center, those born outside the US make up 13.8% of the population today. This is nearly three times higher than the 4.7% in 1970 but still less than the record 14.8% in 1890.

The problem is not the influx of immigrants itself, but the increasing share of those who are undocumented, most of whom enter through the Mexican border.

The US government does not publish data on the number of migrants who enter and remain in the country illegally. However, the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) records encounters when its agents meet migrants attempting to cross the border illegally. Since Biden took office and until April of this year, 6.4 million such illegal migrants have been apprehended. Around 3 million asylum cases were pending in the courts as of December last year.

This situation impacts public sentiment, as illegal immigrants play a significant role in various sectors, from the labor market to crime rates. A Gallup poll in June this year showed that 55% of Americans want to reduce immigration levels – the highest rate since 2001.

The issue of illegal immigration is more pressing in the southern states (the so-called Sun Belt) that border Mexico: Texas, New Mexico, and the swing state of Arizona. Interestingly, opposition to illegal immigration comes not only from white Americans but also from a portion of the Hispanic population who entered the US legally.

The situation surrounding illegal migrants escalated in January this year when Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, deployed the state’s National Guard and limited federal border patrol access to a section of the US-Mexico border. His stance was supported by the governments of 25 states where the governors are Republicans.

For a long time, the immigration issue blocked the allocation of aid to Ukraine, as Democrats combined in one bill, alongside aid for Taiwan, Israel, and Ukraine, appropriations for strengthening measures against illegal migration and securing the southern US border.

Eventually, the bill was split. Congress voted for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, but additional funding to curb immigration has yet to be approved.

Democrats’ immigration policy and Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is the current Vice President of the United States, so her image is influenced by everything done or not done in the sphere of illegal immigration over the past four years. Moreover, Harris was personally involved in addressing the migration crisis.

Joe Biden’s immigration policy focused on rolling back many of the restrictive measures implemented by Trump during his first presidency.

The Democrats’ position is that Biden sought to create a more humane and orderly immigration system, emphasizing the importance of family unity and fair treatment of immigrants. For instance, his administration ended the “zero tolerance” policy that led to family separations. Biden’s team also worked to reunite families affected by the deportation of one or both parents.

Biden appointed Harris to address the “root cause” of immigration from three Central American countries – Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. The Vice President’s work on immigration focused on encouraging American companies to invest in Central America. Harris’s second area of work was promoting democracy and development through diplomatic initiatives.

In March 2024, the White House announced that the Vice President secured commitments from private companies to invest over $5 billion to expand economic opportunities and reduce crime in the region. However, these are long-term measures. Overall, a significant portion of Democrats and Republicans believe that Harris has not succeeded in her assigned task.

In early summer, the US President issued two executive orders that could change the situation.

The first, from June 4, strips illegal immigrants of the right to asylum and provides for their expedited deportation to Mexico or their country of origin. This measure will remain in place until the average number of migrant apprehensions falls below 1,500 per day. If this number again exceeds 2,500 people, the order will be reinstated.

The second, from June 18, is about “immigration amnesty” for illegal immigrants. Deportations will no longer apply to those who are married to U citizens and have lived in the country for at least ten years. The White House estimates that there are about 550,000 such individuals.

After Harris’s nomination for President, she declared a shift towards a tougher stance on the immigration issue.

In early August, Harris’s campaign launched an ad in which she tries to portray herself as tough on immigration. It highlights that as a prosecutor, she fought against drug cartels and smugglers, “supported the toughest immigration reform as Vice President, and now promises to hire thousands of new border agents.

Moreover, at a rally in Arizona on August 9, Harris stated the need for comprehensive immigration reform that includes a strong border and a deserved path to citizenship.

This contrasts with her position during the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries when Harris proposed decriminalizing illegal border crossings and providing illegal migrants access to public health insurance programs.

What Republicans and Donald Trump say about immigration problem

Trump and the Republicans overall sharply criticize Biden’s immigration policy, claiming it is too lenient and has led to a surge in illegal border crossings.

Biden is accused of abandoning Trump-era policies, including the Migrant Protection Protocols, also known as the Remain in Mexico policy. The protocols required asylum seekers arriving at the US southern border to return to Mexico while their asylum claims were processed in US courts.

Republicans are calling for the reinstatement of tougher border security measures, increased deportations, and law enforcement actions to deter illegal immigration.

Meanwhile, Trump ridiculed Biden’s June 4 order as being too little and too late and designed to bring Biden political benefits rather than solve the problem.

Interestingly, in a recent interview with Elon Musk, Trump joked that the immigration issue even saved his life during a recent assassination attempt. Moments before the first shot, he turned to the right to look at a chart with data on illegal immigration. According to Trump, this saved him from a direct hit, with the bullet grazing only his ear.

Trump’s team is determined to continue using the issue of illegal immigration. It is an emotional topic that resonates well with Republican voters and can divert attention from more slippery issues like abortion rights or the rising cost of living.

Previously, RBC-Ukraine reported how the topic of abortion bans is boosting Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the election.

Sources: the Pew Research Center, Gallup, US Customs and Border Protection statistics, and public statements by American politicians.