Trump's Strait of Hormuz victory claim may not hold up: 3 reasons
Photo: Oil tanker (Getty Images)
US President Donald Trump has announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, but maritime traffic remains paralyzed. More than 580 vessels are waiting in the Persian Gulf, fearing mines and new shelling from Iran, and that is not the only reason, repoers BBC.
The US president announced the immediate opening of the strategic waterway on Sunday. But the numbers tell a different story. An analysis of MarineTraffic data shows that only seven vessels have passed through the strait.
There are currently more than 250 tankers and 330 cargo ships in the Persian Gulf. About 75% of oil tankers are stationary. They have clustered near terminals in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE.
Experts highlight three critical obstacles to resuming navigation.
Safety and protection
Captains are in no hurry to take risks. Tehran blocked the strait in late February after strikes by Israel and the US. Since then, Iranian forces have opened fire on every ship that attempted to pass without permission.
"It would take an extremely brave captain to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, given the current state," said Martin Kelly of EOS Risk Group.
The situation is complicated by confusion over the US blockade. Trump first announced the lifting but then stated it would remain in effect until the official signing of the agreement. US warships are still in position. Shipowners are waiting for Friday, hoping for stability.
Threat of mining
Iran has mined large sections of the strait and has officially threatened to use floating mines in the event of an attack on its coast. These objects are now a major headache for the international community.
The clearance process will be too slow. According to experts, demining could take anywhere from 30 days to six months.
The UK and France have already dispatched their warships to assist in the operation. The British vessel RFA Lyme Bay, equipped with mine-hunting systems, has already been spotted near Cyprus. Minesweepers will have to move at a speed of only 4-6 kilometers per hour to survey the seabed.
Transit fees and charges
The Strait of Hormuz has always been a free natural passage. But Iran wants to change the rules of the game. Tehran has established the Persian Gulf Administration and plans to issue transit permits.
The Iranian agency Fars has reported on the possible introduction of service fees. The US and its allies categorically reject these claims. Trump insists on free passage.
"Who is enforcing it? How will it be enforced? How will fees get collected? What do other Gulf countries feel about that?" asks analyst Naveen Das.
Experts conclude: a political agreement may open the strait quickly, but commercial shipping will return to normal gradually. The risks are too high, and insurers do not want to take responsibility for potential losses.
What is happening in the oil market
Despite the jam in the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices have begun to decline optimistically. Brent futures fell by $4.08, or 4.7%, to $83.25 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by $4.35, or 5.1%, to $80.53.
Ukrainian experts have already given a forecast for gas station prices for the summer-autumn of 2026. Experts' forecasts agree on one thing: a return to February 2026 prices will not happen in June or in the near future.
