Trump holds full leverage over Putin, Russian analyst Preobrazhensky says
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin (photo: RBC-Ukraine collage)
US President Donald Trump has all the leverage needed to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into signing a peace agreement with Ukraine, Russian political analyst Ivan Preobrazhensky said.
Trump seeks a deal at any cost
"I think Trump will, again and again, wave after wave, try to negotiate with Putin on Putin's terms, but at the same time, it's quite likely that sanctions and some alternative pressure mechanisms will gradually increase. He will not abandon this path, because it's the simplest one," Preobrazhensky said.
According to him, Trump does not need real peace. What matters to him is a deal signed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin.
"Whether it will be fulfilled or not, or what will be written in it specifically, this, frankly, does not interest him at all. He needs to go to the podium and say: 'I made peace'," the expert explained.
At the same time, he emphasized that Trump cannot and does not want to fully give up Ukraine, because that would cause serious political problems at home.
Political and geographic pressure on the Kremlin
Preobrazhensky added that Trump has tools for political and geographic pressure on the Kremlin.
"That is, cutting off the Kremlin's 'tails' or 'tentacles' around the world. Well, for instance, Trump has his own problem with Venezuela. At the same time, Venezuela is a huge source of black income for the Kremlin, essentially a black oil cashbox. If Trump eventually destroys the Maduro regime, the Kremlin will lose one of its economic and foreign-policy resources. And it will become clear that it could not protect someone," the expert noted.
Problems for Russia in Africa and Latin America
He also said that the Kremlin will face problems in Africa and Latin America.
"In Mali, some Al-Qaeda groups, along with Tuaregs, blocked the capital, where the military junta sits. This junta cooperates with Putin and transferred to the Russians a huge number of local mines with minerals," he explained.
"If this military junta is eventually toppled, then Russia will have a major loss of income that informally goes to the war — to purchase, for example, illegal technologies and goods that it does not produce," the political analyst added.
According to Preobrazhensky, this will weaken Russia's position in the broader Sahara region. Countries and local groups will begin turning away from Moscow because it will no longer be able to deliver the security it has promised.
Sanctions remain an essential tool
He also noted that sanctions remain a key pressure mechanism, especially the recent targeted ones.
"These are probably the same sanctions that were introduced at the beginning of the full-scale aggression, that is, before the spring of 2022. These are the strongest real sanctions among those ever introduced," the expert concluded.
US peace plan
Information about a new US peace plan to resolve Russia's war against Ukraine appeared in several American media outlets on November 19.
Reports stated that the plan envisioned the transfer of all of Donbas to Russia. In addition, Ukraine would have to limit its weapons arsenal, cut its army in half, and recognize the Russian language as a second state language.
Later, the media published a complete 28-point draft, which included permanent territorial concessions by Ukraine and the granting of amnesty to Russia.
On November 23, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France prepared counterproposals to the US project to make it more acceptable to Ukraine.
The same day, negotiations between Ukrainian and US delegations took place in Geneva, after which information emerged about a revised document on a potential settlement.
