Still no consensus: Western states as supporters or opponents of Ukraine's victory plan

Contents

• Essense of Ukraine's victory plan
• Supporters
• Who responded coolly
• Opponents
• How Russia perceives the plan

Essense of Ukraine's victory plan

The victory plan consists of five points and three secret annexes.

The first point is geopolitical: NATO countries send an official invitation to Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Alliance.

The second point is defense. The key is to support the operation in the Kursk region (Russia), strengthening Ukraine's defense forces, lifting restrictions on strikes with long-range Western weapons on Russian territory, and receiving intelligence data. This point has a secret annex accessible only to partners with a high potential for military aid.

The third point is deterrence. Ukraine proposes placing a comprehensive strategic package of non-nuclear deterrence to force Russia into a fair diplomatic process to end the war or lose the ability to continue its aggression. This point also includes a secret annex.

The fourth point is economic. Ukraine suggests the US and EU invest jointly and utilize the potential of natural resources worth trillions of dollars. The secret annex is shared only with certain partners.

The fifth point concerns security, focusing on the post-war period. Ukraine will be ready to send a contingent experienced in modern warfare to replace US forces in Europe.

According to Zelenskyy, the secret sections are sensitive, such as the permission to use Western long-range weapons.

He noted that Western partners took a practical approach to the victory plan. Teams are now working on the details to provide effective support. He compared the reaction to the negotiations over Patriot and F-16 deliveries when allies initially refused but gradually agreed.

Supporters

Ukraine's closest neighbors traditionally backed the initiatives.

• Lithuania

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda says the victory plan includes elements of "homework we hadn’t completed".

"There is nothing new there. There is something we wanted to do but were unable to invite Ukraine to become a member of NATO at the Vilnius summit. The same happened again in Washington," he said.

In his opinion, until the West permits to strike deep into Russia and transfers more weapons and equipment, "we are far from victory." He urges allies not to think about how following red lines somehow de-escalates the situation. "Because from a strong position, Russia will never be ready for negotiations," he added.

• Latvia

Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs says that Putin is not planning to attack NATO members now but if he sees the weakness of the Alliance, he will test it for strength. Commenting on the first point of Ukraine's victory plan, he added that actual participation in NATO is more important than an invitation.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Baiba Braže believes that the plan is feasible. But it will require significant participation of Ukraine and the determination of allies. As for joining NATO, the process "will take some time." Meanwhile, it is necessary to increase the defense capabilities of Ukraine.

"Each point of the victory plan requires a lot of work. I don't want to highlight deadlines or smaller details. But it will have rational support from our side," she added.

• Estonia

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal says the victory plan is a concrete goal of the allies. In his opinion, the only way to create conditions for a just peace is to support Ukraine with everything necessary. "Ukraine should become a member of NATO and the European Union as soon as possible and without obstacles," he said.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna considers the elements of the plan to be the basis of Ukraine's victory. "It is consistent with the elements of Zelenskyy's 10-point peace plan (peace formula - ed.). Estonia fully supports this plan, and we are convinced that the victory plan can be implemented," he said.

• Poland

Commenting on Ukraine's invitation to NATO, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reminded that since the mid-2000s, Warsaw has been consistently advocating for Ukraine's access. "Our position has not changed. In this regard, we stand in solidarity with Ukraine," he said.

But he admitted that there is no consensus among the EU leaders on the assessment of the victory plan. He also suggests that the strategies of this plan may be revised depending on the outcomes of the US presidential election.

• Denmark

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stresses that the plan contains good ideas. "And I agree with Zelenskyy that the central element of this plan is NATO membership. This is the most important guarantee that the country can obtain," she said, adding that Denmark actively supports Ukraine's accession to NATO.

Who responded coolly

Key Western partners have so far responded cautiously to the victory plan.

• United States

Washington's response was quite predictable. While the US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said that America continues to cooperate with the Ukrainian government on this plan, Julianne Smith, US Permanent Representative to NATO, commented on the first point.

"We are not at the point right now where the Alliance is talking about issuing an invitation in the short term," she said.

According to the White House, the discussion about the invitation continues, but there is no consensus among the member states. Even though all 32 members confirmed the irreversibility of Ukraine's path to the Alliance in mid-July at the NATO summit. Jake Sullivan, US National Security Advisor, believes that Ukraine still needs to work on reforms and security conditions.

• NATO

According to Secretary General Mark Rutte, the allies have considered the victory plan. But many aspects are still subjects to discussion. "Well, the plan has many aspects and many political and military issues we really need to hammer out with the Ukrainians to understand what is behind it, to see what we can do, what we cannot do," he said.

Rutte refused to reveal what exactly they plan to discuss with Ukraine. For now, it is necessary to focus on helping to win back territories and strengthen Kyiv's position in future peace negotiations.

• Germany

Germany rejects two key points: a quick invitation to NATO and the supply of long-range weapons. Chancellor Olaf Scholz says preventing Russia's war with NATO is his priority, so he will not change his position on Taurus missiles. "I do not consider such supplies to be right, and it will remain so," he said.

Scholz also intends to block the swift invitation to the Alliance. According to the resolution of the last summit, it will be possible only after all allies agree and the necessary democratic, economic, and security reforms are implemented.

Opponents

Negative reactions came mainly from Slovakia and Hungary.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said before that Ukraine might face a deal similar to the Munich Agreement of 1938, as a result of which it will lose part of its territories and fall victim to the great powers. Munich Agreement between France, Britain, Italy, and Hitler's Germany resulted in Czechoslovakia ceding the Sudetenland.

He believes Donald Trump, who promised to stop the war within 24 hours, will win the US election. "Peace with Russia will be concluded by Ukraine and the United States. And I am afraid that Ukraine will become a victim, just as we became victims of the Munich Agreement," Fico said, adding that he does not believe that the Russians will leave Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk.

One cannot say unequivocally that Fico is against the Ukrainian victory. He insists that he supports any peace plan proposed to resolve the conflict.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán believes that the Ukrainian plan is doomed to failure. He also repeated his old thesis that Ukraine would not be able to defeat Russia. "Conducting negotiations from a position of strength is a good idea, but we are weak... A good idea is not to fight, but to cease fire and end the war," Orbán said.

According to him, it is necessary to achieve a diplomatic end to the war as soon as possible so that Ukraine "loses as little territory as possible."

"It will end in defeat. The other 26 countries listened to Zelenskyy's victory plan being shocked. What did you have earlier? We thought we were following a victory plan... We do not support it, because it is not Hungary's victory plan," he added.

How Russia perceives the plan

Russia predictably criticized the Ukrainian plan. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says it aims to formalize NATO's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war.

"Zelenskyy says: yes, guys, you participated in this before, but unofficially. Now let's make it official, let's have NATO here. It's short-sighted, reckless, illogical in his situation," he said.

The official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, calls the plan a set of slogans. In her opinion, it can allegedly lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Russian propaganda calls the five-point plan "hysteria over Ukraine's invitation to NATO, which is an impossible condition."

Sources: statements of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, American officials, as well as European leaders on the sidelines of the EU summit in Brussels.