Explained: Situation near Pokrovsk and possible threat to Dnipro region

What is happening around Pokrovsk

Since July last year, Russian troops have been trying to capture the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, but the offensive has been delayed for months. However, since the fall, the Russians have become more active and are rapidly seizing territory around the once 65,000-people city.

In particular, according to Julian Röpcke, an analyst for the German tabloid Bild, since the beginning of 2025, Russians have captured 8 settlements on the way to Pokrovsk. And now the enemy is trying to bypass Pokrovsk from the south.

Russians are trying to surround Pokrovsk from two flanks (picture: DeepState)

As military expert Oleksandr Musiienko told RBC-Ukraine, the situation around Pokrovsk is really complicated, and the Russians are attacking from two flanks. However, according to Musiienko, fighting directly in Pokrovsk was predicted back in September last year, but thanks to the successful actions of the Defense Forces in Selydove, the advance of Russian troops was stopped.

“Then the enemy began to be actively detained in the area of Kurakhove. And we see that it is very difficult there now, the enemy is advancing, but still. Now they are again taking measures to activate the southern and northern flanks and move towards Pokrovsk. The enemy's goal is not to enter Pokrovsk itself, but rather they will try to conduct an encompassing operation, that is, to surround the city,” the expert said.

According to Musiienko, the Russian army plans to realize the encirclement of Pokrovsk within the next few weeks.

“But everything will depend on the development of the situation on the battlefield. There are still chances to stop the enemy's advance and stabilize the situation. Ukrainian forces are working to give the enemy no chance,” he added.

Threat of a fight spreading to the Dnipro region

In his article on Bild, Röpcke noted that the Russian army, which is operating on the southern flank of Pokrovsk, is already a few kilometers from the administrative border with the Dnipro region. The analyst even suggests that in a few weeks, the fighting could spread to its territory.

The Russian army is a few kilometers away from the Dnipro region (picture: DeepState)

Musiienko disagreed with this forecast in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine and recalled that a similar forecast from a German analyst was made back in August 2024.

“We have already entered January 25, more than 4 months have passed there, 5 months, and there are no such battles. Therefore, I think that despite the apocalyptic scenarios, the fighting continues and everything is being done to prevent the fighting from spreading to the Dnipro region,” the military expert said.

Moreover, Musiienko believes that the chances of the Defense Forces seizing the initiative remain, but the Ukrainian army still faces heavy fighting ahead.

Situation at the frontline on January 4

As reported by the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff, as of 4 p.m. today, more than 100 combat engagements have taken place at the front. The Pokrovsk direction remains the toughest, where Russians have tried to push Ukrainian troops back 30 times.

Over the past 24 hours, the Russian army lost more than 1,500 soldiers in the war against Ukraine. Also, the Ukrainian military managed to shoot down a Russian helicopter yesterday.

Sources: the DeepState map, an article by German analyst Julian Röpcke in Bild, and a commentary by Oleksandr Musiienko, a military member and head of the Center for Military Legal Studies.