Second front and Russia’s defeat: Expert outlines what’s needed to end the war this fall
Illustrative photo: Ukrainian military (Getty Images)
Russia is already exhausted and cannot fight at the 2022-2023 level. However, Russian authorities are confident that they will hold Ukrainian territories and may be able to capture more, believes Oleksandr Kovalenko, military and political expert of the Information Resistance Group.
According to him, Russian authorities will not stop under the conditions set by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, Russia can still be forced to capitulate.
"For this, something must happen, and it will not be through diplomacy. Perhaps the opening of a new front if allies step in for Ukraine. But this is an unrealistic plan," he emphasized.
In Kovalenko's view, to stop the aggression in the fall, it is necessary to inflict such a defeat on Russia in the coming months that it cannot recover from. However, it is unlikely that something similar can be achieved in the combat zones.
"This could be a breakthrough to Crimea, encircling a large number of troops on the left bank of the Kherson region, destroying logistics, and isolating the peninsula. This would cause real stress for Russia. There are various scenarios, but it’s hard to say which one might be used," Kovalenko believes.
However, the question arises whether Ukraine will be able to open and fully maintain another front. As shown by the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operation in the Kursk region, which has been ongoing for over a month, Russia has likely transferred some troops from Ukraine there. Specifically, according to Zelenskyy, Russia transferred 60,000 soldiers from Ukraine to Kursk.
At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin has instructed the military-political leadership to liberate the Kursk region by October 1. However, they must do this without withdrawing forces from key areas where Russia is advancing in Ukraine.
Regarding the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front in Ukraine, it is currently known that Russian soldiers are sending units poorly trained for assaults. In particular, this situation is observed in the city of Vovchansk, Kharkiv region. However, at the end of August, Deputy Commander of the 3rd Brigade, Maksym Zhorin, reported that Ukrainian forces had pushed the occupiers back in the Kharkiv region, and stabilization battles were being fought there.
For detailed information on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s victory plan and whether the war with Russia could end this fall, read the article by RBC-Ukraine.
