Russians yet to launch full-scale counteroffensive in Kursk region – ISW
Photo: Russians have not yet launched a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region (twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA)
Russian troops have initiated a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, but no significant combat activities have been observed that would indicate a large-scale operation to completely drive Ukrainian forces from the seized areas, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russian forces have concentrated 40,000 soldiers in the Kursk region, though he did not specify the composition of this grouping. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that it remains unclear whether the President’s figure refers exclusively to combat-ready Russian soldiers or includes contracted soldiers, less capable conscripts, irregular formations, border guards, and units from Rosgvardia (the Russian National Guard) and Russian Interior Ministry forces.
On September 13, Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets estimated that between 33,000 and 35,000 Russian troops are currently in the Kursk region. Zelenskyy reported that the Russian command plans to concentrate between 60,000 and 70,000 soldiers in the area. ISW noted that these figures significantly exceed the 50,000 soldiers American officials estimate are necessary for Russia to expel Ukrainians from the Kursk region.
The Institute’s analysts also pointed out that, so far, Russian authorities have relied primarily on poorly trained and equipped conscripts, along with small units of Russian regular and irregular forces, to counter Ukrainian incursions into the Kursk region. They deemed it unlikely that the majority of the current Russian force in the Kursk region possesses sufficient combat experience.
“Russian counteroffensive operation to retake territory seized by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region will very likely require even more manpower and materiel than Russia has already concentrated in the area — especially if most of the already committed units lack combat experience,” the ISW stated.
Currently, ISW notes, the primary responsibility for counterattacks in the Kursk region rests with recently redeployed Russian airborne troops. This suggests that the Russian military command may be planning to deploy its most elite or capable units for territorial recovery.
“The Russian military will most certainly have to redeploy units already committed to ongoing offensive operations or operational reserves from Ukraine to the Kursk region in order to field the combat-effective units needed for a large counteroffensive operation and then subsequently guard the international border against future Ukrainian incursion,” ISW’s report said.
Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region
Since August 6, Ukrainian Armed Forces have taken control of about one hundred settlements in the Kursk region, including the city of Sudzha. The total area under Ukrainian control exceeds 1,300 square kilometers.
On September 12, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Russian forces had begun counteroffensive operations in the Kursk region. However, Pentagon spokesman Major General Patrick Ryder indicated that Russian units are attempting a marginal counteroffensive operation.
According to Zelenskyy, the Russians are trying to regain control of the areas captured by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, but no significant progress has been observed.
The President also noted that Ukrainian forces will maintain control of these territories until Russian President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiate with Kyiv.
