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Russians prepare for offensive, but large-scale breakthrough won't occur

Russians prepare for offensive, but large-scale breakthrough won't occur Russians await the freezing of the ground for an offensive, but it will be confined to local maneuvers (photo: Getty Images)

The Russian occupying forces are reportedly preparing offensive operations in the east and south of Ukraine in the coming weeks when the ground freezes. However, the aggressor may face challenges in achieving significant breakthroughs due to a lack of forces and personnel, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report notes that there has been recent information in Russian media suggesting the alleged preparation of an offensive by the aggressor in the coming weeks after the ground freezes in eastern and southern Ukraine. The period between January 12 and February 2 is tentatively mentioned.

However, literary critic and alternative historian Sergey Pereslegin is concerned that Russia lacks a sufficient number of troops for large-scale offensive actions. The existing occupation forces may only allow for local tactical maneuvers.

Former head of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin stated that the front line in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region is humming like a beehive due to the large number of Ukrainian drones that are actively and accurately hitting targets, complicating the rotation of Russian personnel.

According to the assessment of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the negative temperatures in Ukraine are likely currently restraining operations on the front but will create more favorable terrain for mechanized maneuver warfare as the ground freezes in the coming weeks.

"ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely try to sustain or intensify localized offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine in an attempt to seize and retain the initiative regardless of winter weather and terrain conditions. ISW also assesses, however, that Russian forces will be unable to make operationally significant breakthroughs," the report states.

Russian military actions in Ukraine

On January 13, the Institute for the Study of War published maps showing that Russian invaders are attempting to advance south of Donetsk.

Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, noted that Russian military forces are facing failures within the framework of the winter offensive. Currently, the enemy continues offensive actions in the directions of Kupiansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the invaders would likely prepare for a new offensive closer to the presidential elections in Russia.