Russian summer offensive near Ukraine's Kharkiv may stall despite 'four-month window' - RUSI
Photo: Russia attempts to break through the front near Kharkiv, but without success (Getty Images)
Russian forces continue to amass troops and military equipment near the border with Ukraine's Kharkiv region. Ukrainian military officials are warning of preparations for a new phase of fighting, though no large-scale offensive has been recorded so far, informs Sky News.
According to Sky News' report, Russian forces have stepped up troop regroupings just across the border, particularly in areas adjacent to the hero city of Kharkiv.
The enemy is attempting to move its forces closer to the front line. However, Ukrainian troops say current Russian assaults remain ineffective.
Analysts suggest Russia may have a "four-month window" for active offensive operations until autumn weather sets in and Soviet-era equipment supplies begin to run out.
At the same time, part of Russia's reserves, including the elite Russian Airborne Forces that had previously fought in the north, could be redeployed to other directions, such as the Donetsk region.
Mounting pressure
Some experts, including those from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), believe Russia's summer offensive will not be a rapid breakthrough. Instead, pressure is expected to increase gradually along several sections of the frontline.
Still, the threat of attacks on border cities — particularly Kharkiv and Sumy — remains.
"I think they must know this is their last year of build-up before they reach a plateau," said military analyst Michael Clarke, referring to Russia's issues with tank production.
So far, Russia has relied heavily on its vast stockpiles of Soviet-era equipment. Only about 25% of its armored vehicles currently come from new production.
Earlier reports indicated Russian forces attempted to gain a foothold in the north. But for now, the focus appears to be on massing troops for a possible new operation.
The Ukrainian side closely monitors the situation and prepares for any possible development.
Russia's offensive
At the end of March, President Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian intelligence had recorded signs of Russia preparing for a new offensive in Ukraine. The threat, he said, targets the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
As Associated Press previously reported, Russia is planning to ramp up pressure on Ukraine to strengthen Moscow's position in potential ceasefire talks.
