Russian recruitment for war against Ukraine drops 20% in year — ISW
Photo: Ukraine's drone strikes have reduced Russia's numerical advantage (Getty Images)
In Russia, fewer and fewer people are willing to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense and go to war against Ukraine. This downward trend began a year ago and has only intensified, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In their report, analysts noted a publication by the media outlet Vazhnye Istorii. Citing data on Russian federal budget expenditures, the agency reported that in the first quarter of 2026, 71,200 people received one-time enlistment bonuses after signing contracts with the Ministry of Defense. This is 20% less than in 2025.
"363,900 people signed contracts with the Russian MoD in all of 2025, 10 percent fewer than in 2024," the agency’s analysts note.
ISW notes that Russia is facing increasing difficulties with recruitment amid rising casualties. Therefore, the Kremlin is forced to draw on reserves, increase signing bonuses, and expand covert mobilization efforts to address this shortage.
Analysts also note that Russia continues to present its main advantage as numerical superiority, but Ukraine’s edge in drones and medium-range strikes has neutralized it. The reason is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are inflicting disproportionately high losses on Russia in terms of manpower and equipment.
"The Kremlin has been setting conditions to conduct limited, rolling reserve call-ups to make up for its losses in Ukraine amid declining recruitment rates and rising casualty rates," the ISW concludes.
Kremlin recruitment
In late 2025, Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation reported that Russia had launched an active campaign to recruit mercenaries in Iran. In particular, flyers appeared in a number of cities offering to join the Russian army, promising a one-time payment of $20,000 plus approximately $2,000 per month.
In May of this year, Russia expanded its network for recruiting foreigners to fight in the war against Ukraine. The Kremlin began to recruit citizens of African countries more actively.
