Russian economy declining? Expert assesses situation
Illustrative photo: The economy of the aggressor country is beginning to enter a technical recession (Getty Images)
As of today, the Russian economy is beginning to shift from stagnation to decline — a state referred to as a "technical recession," states Ivan Us, chief consultant at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, according to the material Russia's war chest will run dry in two years? What's wrong with its economy and who keeps it afloat.
"When phrases about stagnation appear in Russia, I don’t agree. The diagnosis for the Russian economy as of now is a technical recession," says Ivan Us.
He noted that, unlike official Russian statistics, which do not reflect the real situation, Russian bankers are already talking about GDP decline in the first and second quarters of this year.
In economic theory, when two consecutive quarters show a decline compared to the previous quarter, this situation is called a technical recession — meaning it is no longer just a slowdown, but not yet a full-scale contraction, the expert explains.
World Bank data indicate that Russia’s GDP grew by 4.1–4.3% in 2023–2024, reaching $2.07 trillion and $2.183 trillion, respectively. For 2025, this indicator is forecasted at 0.6% (IMF forecast published by Bloomberg on October 14, 2025).
The Russian economy continues to lose ground amid the protracted war against Ukraine and international sanctions. Key sectors are showing a decline, and the banking sector is preparing for possible state support to avoid collapse.
In early September, Sberbank CEO German Gref acknowledged that in the second quarter of 2025, economic growth in Russia had effectively come to a halt.
On November 24, Reuters published a forecast that, by the end of November, Russian budget revenues from oil and gas could decrease by approximately 35% compared to November of last year.
