Russian army likely plans to create blockade of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad - ISW
The Russian command wants to avoid urban combat (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
Russian troops are likely planning to block Ukrainian ground lines of communication in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in the Donetsk region. In this way, the enemy aims to force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat from the cities in the coming months, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts report that the Russian forces recently cut the T-0405 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka road to the east of Pokrovsk and the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezhova road to the southwest of Pokrovsk as part of their efforts to encircle Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
Both roads, T-0405 and T-0406, are two of the three main land supply routes for the Ukrainian military group in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area.
In this context, ISW believes that the Russian offensive to the east and west of Pokrovsk could complicate Ukrainian logistics and Ukraine's ability to replenish supplies and reposition troops to defend the settlements of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
Experts warn that the Russian military command may intend to carry out further offensives to the north of the T-0405 and T-0406 roads, ultimately forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat north (rather than east or west), to support the encirclement of both settlements by Russia and further advance westward towards the administrative border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Additionally, the Russian military command is likely hoping to avoid conducting frontal assaults on the urban areas of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad with infantry.
As a result, the blockade of these cities increases the likelihood of a Ukrainian army retreat, while Russian forces would be able to capture these settlements, avoiding heavy urban combat.
