Russian army likely intends to start second phase of its offensive near Kharkiv - ISW

The redeployment of Russian reinforcements to the Kharkiv region indicates that for the Kremlin, the likely priorities are to force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from critical sections of the eastern front and to create a buffer zone in the northern Kharkiv region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW believes that the Russian forces are likely planning to begin the second phase of their offensive operation in the northern Kharkiv region following the anticipated capture of Vovchansk. However, positional battles and potential Ukrainian counterattacks may require Russian forces to conduct another wave of intensified assaults in the area to complete the city's capture.

The ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are likely holding back many reserves of the Northern Group of Forces until it reaches the planned final strength of 50,000-70,000 personnel.

However, according to ISW analysts, the Northern Group of Forces, even at the upper limit of the stated final strength, will not have the necessary manpower to conduct a successful operation to capture Kharkiv.

Redeployment of Russian troops to the north of the Kharkiv region

Recently, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that Russian forces are reinforcing additional forces in two directions in the Kharkiv region. Specifically, towards Strilecha - Lyptsi and the area around Vovchansk. However, in his opinion, these forces are currently insufficient for a full-scale offensive and breakthrough of our defense.

This information was confirmed by the head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, Oleh Syniehubov. He also reported that the enemy is constantly reinforcing reserves along the Kupiansk direction to maintain potential. Evacuation has been announced from several settlements in the Bohodukhiv direction.