Russian army likely attempt new summer offensive in Ukraine - ISW

The provision of assistance to Ukraine from Western countries in the security sphere likely plays a crucial role in the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to hold positions and repel new offensives by the Russian army in the coming months.

According to ISW experts, Russian forces will try to maintain the pace of their offensive operations along the entire front to prevent Ukrainian forces from stabilizing their defensive lines.

Analysts believe that Russian forces will continue to exploit the advantages provided by having the initiative across the theater of military operations to dynamically reassess their offensive efforts this spring and summer, possibly hoping to exploit potential weaknesses in Ukraine's defense.

It is noted that the occupiers may attempt to maintain the pace of their offensive operations at any cost to take advantage of the shortage of Ukrainian equipment before the promised Western security assistance arrives in the country.

Frontline situation

The past few months have been difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In particular, on February 17, they had to withdraw from Avdiivka, which they had been defending since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on March 11 that the Armed Forces had managed to stop the advance of the Russian army. According to the President, the situation on the front is much better than in the last three months. Commenting on the situation around Avdiivka, the President said that the Russians did not capture it, but simply destroyed it and then entered.

Read about how the Ukrainian Armed Forces are closing pain points on the front and whether the outcome of the war will be decided in the summer in the article by RBC-Ukraine.