Russia to turn to Syria's new leadership to keep military presence - ISW
Photo: Novorossiysk submarine (mil.ru)
Russian military presence around Syria indicates Moscow's cautious and indecisive response to the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Moscow is attempting to establish cooperation with the Syrian opposition and maintain its military contingent in Syria, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Satellite images from Sentinel-2, dated December 10, show that Russian ships have yet to return to the Syrian port of Tartus. The Russian Mediterranean fleet remains 8 to 15 km away from the city.
OSINT analyst MT Anderson identified four Russian ships within this radius as of December 10: the Admiral Gorshkov-class frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate, the submarine Novorossiysk, and the oil tanker Vyazma.
Satellite images from December 9 showed that Admiral Grigorovich, Novorossiysk, and Vyazma remained in the same location as on December 10.
Source: maxar.com
Other open-source analysts noted that the large landing ship of the Baltic Fleet, Alexander Shabalin (Project 775), left the Baltic Sea on December 10 to assist in the removal of some Russian military assets from Tartus to the Mediterranean Sea (possibly to Tobruk, Libya).
A Russian military blogger claimed that by the end of December 9, the status of Hmeimim (the airbase) and Tartus was "up in the air." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that it is "difficult to predict" what will happen in Syria, but Russia will continue dialogue with all countries that share its interests.
Source: maxar.com
Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported on December 10 that Russian forces continue dismantling equipment and weapons, transporting troops out of Hmeimim on military transport aircraft (An-124 and Il-76), and dismantling equipment in Tartus under the supervision of recently deployed Russian special forces.
Maxar satellite images from December 10 revealed that Russian aircraft, helicopters, and related military equipment remain at the Hmeimim airbase.
Source: maxar.com
ISW believes that the lack of a coordinated response from Russia, both in terms of military presence and rhetorical statements, indicates that Moscow is still waiting to formulate its next steps in Syria while monitoring the situation on the ground.
"The Kremlin is very likely hesitant to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria in the event that it can establish a relationship with Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its basing and personnel in Syria," the ISW notes.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria
Last week, Islamist rebels from the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched a large-scale offensive on key Syrian cities.
Over several days, the rebels captured Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Deir ez-Zor and, on December 8, took control of the Syrian capital, Damascus.
Bashar al-Assad and his family fled the country. It was later revealed that Russian President Vladimir Putin had granted him asylum in Russia.
According to ISW, Russia may lose its military bases in Syria, which could have serious consequences for the Kremlin.
