Russian base losses in Syria can affect Russia's ability to operate in Africa - ISW
Russian President Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty Images)
After the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's regime, Russia could lose its military bases located in Syria. If this happens, it could have serious consequences for the Kremlin, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia has used its naval base in Tartus to project power in the Mediterranean Sea. Through this base, Moscow has threatened NATO's southern flank and connected its Black Sea assets with the Mediterranean.
Analysts believe that the loss of Russian bases in Syria would likely disrupt Russian logistics, efforts to replenish supplies, and the rotation of the African Corps. Russian operations and power projection in Libya and sub-Saharan African countries would be particularly weakened.
In turn, Russia could attempt to use its presence in Libya and Sudan as alternatives. However, the lack of official agreements with these countries and insufficient infrastructure make them inadequate substitutes.
The ISW also added that the fall of Assad's regime and Russia's failure to maintain it would damage Russia's global image as a reliable ally. This, in turn, threatens its influence over African autocrats that Russia seeks to support and undermines its broader geopolitical goal of positioning itself as a global superpower.
It is noted that in the same report, analysts concluded that the rapid collapse of Assad's regime was a strategic and political defeat for Moscow.
