Russia slows down offensive near Avdiivka but intensifies pressure on Chasiv Yar - ISW

The Institute referred to the morning and evening reports of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of April 30, which stated that during the day the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 47 Russian attacks in the Avdiivka and 57 Russian attacks in the Bakhmut directions. At the same time, the Russians launched many more attacks in the direction of Chasiv Yar than Ukrainian sources reported.

ISW noted that reports for one day are not enough to establish a pattern. However, the information provided by the General Staff may indicate that the Russians are somewhat slowing down the pace of shelling west of Avdiivka, but resuming offensive actions near the town of Chasiv Yar, as noted in previous ISW reports.

Since April 20, Russian forces have focused on developing tactical success near Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka) and Novokalynove (north of Avdiivka). However, as of April 30, the pace of the confirmed offensive appears to have slowed.

Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian troops had advanced:

• 2.7 km wide and 1.52 km deep north of Novokalynove
• south of Keramik (north of Avdiivka)
• in an area up to 1.75 km wide and 1.15 km deep northwest of the village of Ocheretyne in the direction of Novooleksandrivka.

Russian bloggers also noted that Russian troops had advanced west of Semenivka and Berdychiv, northwest of Avdiivka.

“ISW has not observed visual evidence of any of these claims. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces operating near Ocheretyne are 13 kilometers from the T-0504 (Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka) highway, which is consistent with ISW‘s assessed Russian advances in the area,” the report says.

The ISW noted that fighting also continued northwest of Avdiivka near the villages of Arkhanhelske, Sokil, and Solovyove, west of Avdiivka near Umanske, and southwest of Avdiivka near Netaylove.

Google map screenshot

According to Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets:

• 132nd Russian Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st so-called Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC]) and 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) are operating near Novokalynove and Keramik
• elements of the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA, CMD) are attacking toward Novooleksandrivka
• elements of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division (2nd CAA) are operating near Solovyove, Berdychi, and Semenivka
• elements of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA) are operating near Berdychi
• elements of the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) are operating west of Orlivka.

Situation at front

According to ISW map analysis, fighting continues simultaneously in many areas at the front. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have regained some of the lost positions near Kreminna in the Luhansk region, but the Russian troops are pressing near Robotyne and in the area of Chasiv Yar.

In addition, on the evening of April 30, Russians fired ballistic missiles at Odesa. The attack resulted in injuries and deaths.