Russia sets conditions in talks with US on ending war in Ukraine - Reuters

Russian and American officials have discussed the terms during in-person and virtual talks over the past three weeks, according to sources. They described the Kremlin's conditions as broad and similar to the demands it previously put forward to Ukraine, the US, and NATO.

Earlier conditions included Ukraine renouncing NATO membership, an agreement prohibiting the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine, and international recognition of Vladimir Putin's claim over Crimea and four Ukrainian regions. In recent years, Russia has also demanded that the US and NATO address the so-called "root causes" of the war, including NATO's eastward expansion.

President Donald Trump is awaiting Putin’s response on whether he will agree to a 30-day ceasefire. Putin’s commitment to a potential ceasefire agreement remains uncertain, and details are yet to be clarified.

Some US officials, lawmakers, and experts fear that Putin, a former KGB officer, would use a ceasefire to deepen divisions between the US, Ukraine, and Europe and undermine any negotiations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called a meeting between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia this week "constructive" and stated that a potential 30-day ceasefire with Russia could be used to develop a broader peace agreement.

Over the past two decades, Moscow has made numerous similar demands, some of which have been the subject of official negotiations with the US and Europe.

In particular, Moscow discussed these demands with the Biden administration during a series of meetings in late 2021 and early 2022, when tens of thousands of Russian troops were stationed at Ukraine’s border, awaiting the order to invade.

These demands included restrictions on US and NATO military operations from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

According to US government documents reviewed by Reuters and several former US officials, the Biden administration, while rejecting some of the conditions, attempted to prevent the invasion by engaging with Russia on several of them. The attempt failed, and on February 24, 2022, Russia attacked.

In recent weeks, US and Russian officials have suggested that the draft agreement discussed between Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow in Istanbul in 2022 could serve as a starting point for peace negotiations. The agreement was never finalized.

During those negotiations, Russia demanded that Ukraine abandon its NATO ambitions and adopt a permanent non-nuclear status. It also sought a veto over any actions by countries that might wish to assist Ukraine in the event of war.

The Trump administration has not clarified its approach to negotiations with Moscow. Both sides are conducting two separate discussions: one on resetting US-Russia relations and another on a peace agreement regarding Ukraine.

According to Reuters, there appears to be no unified stance within the US administration on how to proceed.

US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, who is involved in negotiations with Moscow, described last month’s talks in Istanbul as "cogent and substantive negotiations" and suggested they could serve as "a guidepost to get a peace deal done."

However, Trump's top Ukraine and Russia Envoy, retired General Keith Kellogg, stated last week that he does not see the Istanbul agreement as a starting point. "I think we have to develop something entirely new," he said.

Old demands

Experts suggest that Russia’s demands are likely aimed not only at shaping a final agreement with Ukraine but also at forming the basis for deals with Ukraine’s Western allies.

Over the past two decades, Russia has made similar demands to the US - demands that would limit the West’s ability to increase its military presence in Europe and potentially allow Putin to expand his influence on the continent.

"There’s no sign that the Russians are willing to make any concessions," said Angela Stent, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who was the top US intelligence analyst for Russia and Eurasia. "The demands haven’t changed at all. I think they are not really interested in peace or a meaningful ceasefire."

According to US government documents reviewed by Reuters, in an attempt to prevent what US intelligence saw as an imminent Russian invasion, senior Biden administration officials engaged with their Russian counterparts on three Kremlin demands.

These demands included a ban on US and NATO military exercises in the territories of new alliance members, as well as a prohibition on deploying US intermediate-range missiles in Europe or any other location within range of Russian territory.

The documents also reveal that Russia sought to prevent US and NATO military exercises from Eastern Europe to the Caucasus and Central Asia.

"These are the same Russian demands that have been made since 1945," said Kori Schake, a former Pentagon official who directs foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. "With the behavior of the Trump administration in recent weeks, Europeans aren’t just scared we’re abandoning them, they’re afraid we’ve joined the enemy."

According to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), two-thirds of Ukrainians (66%) believe that Russia’s goal is the destruction of Ukraine and its people. In particular, 28% are convinced that Russia seeks to carry out the physical genocide of Ukrainians, while 38% believe Russia aims to seize all or most of Ukraine’s territory and destroy Ukrainian statehood and nationhood.

Meanwhile, according to the Levada Center, a majority of Russians (75%) would support a decision by Vladimir Putin to end the war with Ukraine "this week." However, if Putin decided to end the war under the condition of returning occupied territories, only 28% of Russians would support such a decision.