Reset again? Putin’s strategy for Trump and current state of US-Russia relations

Content

• Resetting relations with Russia
• Negotiation track
• Two Russian triggers

For three years, Putin’s propaganda has been telling the story of the West’s war - mainly in the person of the US - against Russia, using Ukrainians as proxies. With Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House, Russian rhetoric has sharply changed. As a result, they were once again seated at the table with major players, and Putin got a chance to emerge from Western isolation.

Since the beginning of US President Donald Trump’s term, Ukrainian-American relations have been going through difficult times. The new American leader’s team immediately demonstrated the infamous transactional approach, based on the principle of "we - for me, I - for you," while matters of justice, defending democratic values, and so forth interest them far less. At least for the current US President, Ukraine’s status as the victim of an unprecedented, large-scale, and unprovoked external aggression is certainly not Kyiv’s strong point.

Ukrainian diplomats recently endured a crisis following a failed meeting in the Oval Office, and judging by the results of the March 11 negotiations, they are only beginning to find an approach to the current Washington administration. Meanwhile, the bilateral Russian-American track is progressing quite successfully. Trump rarely speaks publicly about Russia and criticizes it even less. It seems that the Kremlin has found common ground with the White House and has something to offer.

Resetting relations with Russia

"There is also a broader strategy in Trump’s approach to this war - recognizing that the US needs to reset relations with Russia. Contacts with both allies and adversaries are important in diplomacy."

These words from US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg best reflect what is happening today between Russia and the US. Even before his inauguration, Donald Trump surprised many with statements that the "Ukrainian problem" should be resolved with Russia and that Moscow invaded because of Ukraine’s desire to join NATO.

After a month and a half in office, Trump has been making various statements about Ukraine almost daily, and it is not always possible to discern a clear logic in them. First, he calls President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a dictator, then he wonders why he even used that word. Trump claims that negotiations with Ukraine are going well, then blames Kyiv for provoking the invasion. The amount of aid that America has provided to Ukraine over three years of war has "grown" from $100 billion to $350 billion, which, according to Trump, Ukrainians must repay to the last cent. Things got even worse after the scandalous meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump in the Oval Office on February 28.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump (photo: Getty Images)

At the same time, Trump’s rhetoric toward Russia and Vladimir Putin is much softer, though not without contradictions. A month ago, Trump said that Ukraine was ready for peace while Putin was destroying Russia. At the same time, the US President stated that Moscow wanted peace - signals that Trump, by his own words, periodically receives from Moscow. One moment he threatens Moscow with sanctions, the next, Western media report that the White House is considering easing them.

Putin, meanwhile, is almost untouched by criticism from his American counterpart, unlike Zelenskyy. Even when Trump was directly asked how he could claim that Russia wanted peace while Putin was bombing Kyiv, the US President shrugged and said that in Putin’s place, "anyone would have done the same." However, Russian opposition political analyst Ivan Preobrazhensky advises against focusing too much on the inconsistency and contradictions in Trump’s statements.

"It’s clear that his statements are a cascade of mutual contradictions, precisely to force his negotiation partners to react in some way. He himself does nothing; he only makes statements. But then the partners take action, and only then does he start to respond. He forces everyone he deals with to react with actions to completely empty words and verbal blackmail," Preobrazhensky told RBC-Ukraine.

At the same time, the fact that Trump actively criticizes Ukraine while criticizing Russia much less suggests that the negotiations being conducted between the American and Russian sides are achieving some success. And their goal, as Keith Kellogg states, is to reset relations between the US and Russia, or at the very least, find common ground.

Negotiation track

Since January 20, at least two meetings have taken place between representatives of the US and Russia to establish bilateral relations. The first was held on February 18 in Riyadh, and the second on February 27 in Istanbul, a day before Zelenskyy's visit to Washington. Shortly before that, on February 12, Trump announced that he had spoken with Putin on the phone. They allegedly discussed ways to achieve a peaceful resolution to the war and restore relations between their countries. Three days later, on February 15, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also spoke over the phone.

Officially, there are no particular details about what is being discussed in these meetings and phone calls, nor is there certainty that Ukraine is explicitly being talked about. However, experts believe that the war in Ukraine is mentioned only indirectly in these US-Russia bilateral talks. Instead, the primary focus appears to be on diplomatic relations and their restoration, according to American political analyst Vladyslav Faraponov.

Negotiations between Russia and the USA (photo: Getty Images)

"I understood from Rubio's interview that they never talked about peace with the Russian Federation. That is, even during two rounds of negotiations, they never talked about peace. It seems that they really talked about embassies, etc. He said then - we will not find out Russia's position if we do not try. That is, it turns out that at that time they did not try," the expert told RBC-Ukraine.

Looking at what Trump publicly says about Russia, there is also no clear indication of any specific agreements that may have been reached in these meetings. The rhetoric that Moscow wants peace remains, but there are no details about what kind of peace this is, under what conditions it would be achieved, or whether Putin is ready to order a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Trump demands concrete statements from Zelenskyy.

One reason for this could be that the Russians approach meetings with the Americans with pre-formulated and agreed-upon proposals. Putin personally controls what can and cannot be negotiated. Once the main points are approved, Russian representatives only need to work out the details, which makes the process much easier. In addition, these discussions do not cover broad or complex issues - only topics that are easy to agree on.

"That’s why there can’t be any bad negotiations yet. If something hasn’t been agreed upon, there won’t even be a meeting - because why would the Americans bother meeting with people who have no decision-making power, knowing that Putin hasn’t given his approval? This creates a perfect illusion of smooth negotiations. And it’s not even certain that Trump fully understands why things are going so smoothly with Russia - it may not be clear to him that nothing serious is actually happening on either side. So far, only technical issues are being resolved," says analyst Preobrazhensky.

The subjects of these preliminary negotiations may vary, but the presence of Kirill Dmitriev - Russia’s investor and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund - is particularly telling. He speaks the same language as Trump: the language of business deals.

One of the meetings between Trump and Putin during the last term of the American President (photo: Getty Images)

One of the ideas reportedly raised by Dmitriev during a meeting with US representatives concerns Russia’s frozen assets. Publicly, Russia continues to threaten Europe for attempting to allocate these funds to Ukraine’s reconstruction. However, behind closed doors, there may be discussions about dividing the funds - two-thirds to Ukraine and one-third to Russia for restoring the territories it has occupied.

From the American perspective, this rational approach could be seen as a concession from Moscow, making it appear more reasonable and practical compared to Kyiv, which demands broader and more ambiguous commitments, such as security guarantees.

Another proposal Russia could make to the US involves allowing American businesses to continue operating in Russia under special conditions. Despite sanctions, some American businesses remain in Russian cities, and under current Russian law, they cannot sell or withdraw their assets. Moscow is now offering them favorable terms for continued operations.

Finally, there’s the issue of rare earth metals. The US offered Ukraine an extremely disadvantageous deal, giving Zelenskyy barely an hour to sign it. While Kyiv was still considering counterarguments and Zelenskyy was holding press conferences insisting that the deal should not involve debt obligations, Putin suddenly made his own proposal.

"We could work together with American companies in this area. For example, in the Krasnoyarsk region, Soviet-era plans included building a new hydroelectric power station and additional aluminum production facilities," said the Russian dictator.

Around this time, Zelenskyy traveled to Washington and, when discussing the rare earth metals deal, emphasized security guarantees for Ukraine.

For Ukrainians, this demand is not only justified - it is logical, considering past agreements like the Budapest Memorandum, in which the US promised to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty. Moreover, Zelenskyy speaks on behalf of a country under attack, so security guarantees from allies are a natural and rational request. However, this logic does not align with Trump’s approach.

The deal Trump proposed to Ukraine resembles the one he once struck in Syria, where US forces secured control over oil fields. When Wagner Group mercenaries attempted to seize these sites, American forces "cleaned them out" - even though, officially, they weren’t even there.

In Trump’s logic, he doesn’t need to explicitly promise security guarantees - he assumes they are automatically provided if his money and investments are involved. It may not be legally sound, but Trump was never interested in lengthy negotiations covering every detail. Instead, he preferred to simply shake hands on it.

Trump and Zelenskyy (photo: president.gov.ua)

"This is what they call 'doing business by the rules of the street.' (…) But what ensures long-term relations? The only true guarantee would be American mining and manufacturing companies physically present in Ukraine. In Trump’s worldview, long-term cooperation is implied, but instead of embracing it, Ukraine asks for formal security agreements," notes Preobrazhensky.

This is why Trump claims to understand Putin - because Russian representatives speak a language Trump comprehends. Meanwhile, Ukraine uses the language of morality, which is not only ineffective but often counterproductive. It irritates Washington, as instead of a business offer, the US perceives it as an appeal to emotions.

Russia is deliberately playing on this contrast. By creating an illusion of smooth negotiations - whether they are merely talks about talks or real discussions - Russia gains leverage in shaping demands concerning Ukraine.

First, Moscow fosters the impression that it is capable of making deals because everything in the current negotiations appears seamless. Then, it subtly introduces its conditions. To Americans, this seems rational and - odd as it sounds - even fair. But eventually, the negotiations will reach the core issue: a ceasefire. And at that point, surprises may await the US.

Two Russian triggers

So far, the US apparently does not have any global problems with Russia, and they are using this latest thaw in relations as much as they can. In the short term, they are asking Putin to act as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran, and in the long term, they aim to turn Moscow against Beijing.

"Of course, it is beneficial for America to sow discord between Russia and China, as well as between Russia and Iran. At this stage, any American President would indeed benefit from Russia cooperating less with China and Iran, and from their cooperation not coming close to forming any kind of military alliance. It’s more complicated with China, but in the case of Iran, this is something that can be discussed. That’s why they are trying to use Putin and Russia as quickly as possible and in significant roles," notes Faraponov.

In fact, negotiations haven’t even started yet, and Russia is already gaining certain benefits, some of which require little effort. For example, America's refusal to supply weapons to Ukraine or share intelligence information. Putin has a rough idea of what the US might want right now and is in no hurry to personally enter the negotiation process, unlike Zelenskyy. He waits and pulls from Washington what benefits him, agreeing to what benefits the Americans.

Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio, and Michael Waltz in negotiations with Russia (photo: Getty Images)

For the Americans themselves, it is still easier to put pressure on Ukraine - it seems to them like an easier way to end the war than meticulously and painstakingly searching for leverage over Moscow, notes Uriel Epstein, Executive director of the American nonprofit organization Renew Democracy Initiative.

"Trump likes to use America’s power to pressure smaller countries. Then he positions everything in such a way that he appears to have quickly achieved a separate result and is, therefore, an amazing negotiator. A successful policy toward Russia requires much more time and energy than Trump is willing to invest. So instead, they focus on Ukraine. But I think the US will soon realize that trying to quickly resolve the war in Ukraine will have a completely different effect than trying to start a trade war with our neighbors," Epstein told RBC-Ukraine.

While Russia and the US are establishing diplomatic relations, Europe is talking about a peace plan. French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are proposing specific steps to be implemented immediately - declaring a ceasefire in the air, at sea, and in the energy sector, and Kyiv supports these proposals. Since it is indeed important for Trump to end the war quickly, declare himself a peacemaker, and possibly even receive a Nobel Peace Prize for it, the day will come when he and his team will present Russia with specific conditions. The first - is a meeting between Putin and Trump, and the second - the most important, ceasefire.

Russian economists speak of dire straits and a sharp decline in an economy that has long been centered around military production. Although Russian troops achieve tactical victories on the front, from a strategic perspective, they cannot and will not be able to capture Ukrainian cities that they have written into their constitution for a long time. In the Kremlin, the Russian dictator is periodically told that it would be rational to start direct negotiations with the US on some kind of peace process, but apparently, they are not receiving a clear response.

Perhaps the reason is that Putin does not yet have an answer. Since his decisions are far from always adequate and rational, there is a possibility that if directly asked about a ceasefire, he will say "no." Moreover, Putin is clearly not ready to meet with Trump on his turf or anywhere convenient for Trump. That’s why his circles are making statements about Minsk being ready to host "dear guests." Putin needs to feel comfortable and absolutely does not want to be seated in front of Trump and Vice President JD Vance one-on-one like Zelenskyy.

For now, the Russian President is trying to win what he can. He may continue pretending for a long time that he is ready for concessions, offering things like discussing Crimea’s status in 50 years, but he will not directly enter the negotiation process. And when the Americans realize this, there is a possibility that all their efforts at pressure and comprehensive criticism will collapse onto Moscow. "The main hope and the main safeguard against Putin - is Putin. Yes. Again. His inadequacy is the main hope," added Preobrazhensky.

Ukraine apparently is trying to establish a negotiation process with the Americans. At the same time, Europe seems to have finally realized that a war is taking place on its continent and that, no matter what statements are made in its direction, it must cooperate with the US. Given that European countries, especially Western ones, have talented negotiators - Macron, for instance - it is reasonable to expect that sooner or later, Europe will make America an offer it cannot refuse. And Ukraine's task today is to ensure that this offer includes its interests as well.