Russia’s top banks preparing for debt crisis - Ukrainian intelligence
Illustrative photo: Russia's VTB is worried about the debt crisis (Getty Images)
Leading Russian banks, including Sberbank and VTB, are preparing for a wave of loan defaults. This is due to the worsening financial situation of Russian citizens, according to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
According to intelligence, at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, many borrowers in Russia will begin to massively default on their loans. Already, the total amount of overdue debt has risen to 1.5 trillion rubles (about 19.2 billion dollars) — a record high in the last six years.
Notably, VTB Bank found that the share of problematic loans has reached 5% and could rise to 7% next year.
Meanwhile, Sberbank CEO German Gref acknowledged during a shareholder meeting that the situation in 2026 will be difficult.
The Foreign Intelligence Service noted that despite claims of stability, there are worrying signals in Russia’s banking system. Investors have started withdrawing money from short-term investments. For the first time this year, more funds are flowing into bond investment funds rather than savings funds — over 2.5 billion dollars have already been moved.
Another alarming sign is the rise in fraud. VTB reports a surge in scams targeting people with loans who are unable to repay them. Payment issues are affecting both individual clients and companies, increasing the risk of a banking crisis.
In response, banks have begun discussing the situation internally and are more frequently offering debt restructuring options. If the trend continues, the Central Bank of Russia is likely to begin selectively supporting banks.
Russian economic collapse
Earlier, analysts at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) emphasized that Russia’s claims of a 4.3% GDP growth in 2024 are fake.
According to SITE, the Russian authorities are significantly underreporting the inflation rate to boast such high economic growth figures.
