Russia's possible attack on NATO in Europe - Front line modeled by Newsweek

The paper writes that Russia has already characterized its war against Ukraine as an indirect war between Moscow and NATO. However, according to Article 5 of the Alliance's charter, only a strike against one of the bloc's countries can trigger a collective response, even if hybrid attacks test this definition.

Nevertheless, Newsweek has mapped out a possible front line if Russia were to invade the Alliance.

Newsweek has modeled the front line if Russia attacks NATO in Europe

According to the map, NATO's northeastern flank, which includes the 830-mile-long border with neighboring Finland, could become a possible front. The country, which joined the bloc in 2023, has already accused Moscow of fomenting a migration crisis on its border. In addition, there is a threat to the Baltic states.

In February, Estonia's foreign intelligence service said that NATO “could face a massive Soviet-style army in the next decade” if Moscow reforms its armed forces. Meanwhile, in neighboring Lithuania, anti-tank concrete pyramids known as “dragon's teeth” have been installed.

Their location near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is strategically important as a potential front line in any conflict between Moscow and the Alliance.

As the Newsweek map emphasizes, the Suwalki Corridor could be the first point of contact for any move by Moscow toward NATO, as it separates the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea from Belarus.

It is also home to thousands of Russian troops, advanced fighter jets and nuclear weapons, and is the only road or rail link between Poland and Central Europe and the Baltic states.

Sensitive to this threat, Estonia and Latvia, which border Russia, signed an agreement with Lithuania in January to strengthen their land borders with Russia and Belarus as part of the Baltic Defense Line.

Meanwhile, last month, the Command Center for NATO's Baltic Sea Task Force was opened in the German port city of Rostock to strengthen NATO's control over the Baltic Sea.

“While states bordering Russia have rightfully expressed heightened concern, it is likely that Putin will remain deterred by NATO and focus his military adventurism on non-NATO states with large Russian populations—think Moldova and Ukraine,” the newspaper writes.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu accused Moscow of interfering in the elections and expressed concern about Moscow's influence on the former Soviet republic, of which the separatist region of Transnistria is a part.

Shortly after the war in Ukraine began, Russian commander Rustam Minnekayev said in April 2022 that Moscow wanted to create a corridor through southern Ukraine into Transnistria, the area shown on the Newsweek map. This has raised questions about how the separatist enclave, which is home to a Russian military presence, might fit into Putin's plans.

Other parts of Europe could also be vulnerable. As previously reported by Newsweek, Mark Montgomery, a retired US Rear Admiral, said Russia's influence in small conflicts in Georgia and Serbia could become even more pronounced.

On Thursday, December 12, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on the Alliance member states to immediately review their defense strategy. The reason for this is the long-term threat from Russia.

He emphasized that in order to prevent a war, NATO countries should spend more on defense. In particular, much more than the current level of 2%.