Russia's pace of offensive in Ukraine increases but remains slow - ISW
Russian military (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
In recent weeks, the pace of the Russian military offensive has increased. However, the advance remains slow and characteristic of a positional war, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that the Western edition comparing the pace of Russia's offensive in September 2024 to early war offensives can be misleading.
The ISW estimates that in March 2024, Russian forces advanced at an average speed of 1,265 square kilometers per day. This is approximately 90 times more than the estimated 14 square kilometers per day captured by Russian troops in September 2024.
The rapid advance of Russia into Ukrainian territory during the first month of the full-scale invasion included the temporary seizure of significant portions of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. In contrast, more recent offensives by the Russian army have been characterized by small-scale, localized, and tactical assaults.
According to the report, Russian forces have recently achieved some successes in eastern Ukraine. However, comparing these gains to Russia's initial incursion into the country at the start of the war can be misleading regarding the significance of these recent achievements.
As of October 1, 2024, Russian troops captured the town of Vuhledar and continued to advance north and northwest of the area, achieving significant tactical successes near Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk) over the past week. While these successes are tactically significant, they do not reflect a general increase in the pace of Russian offensives along the front line, most of which remains relatively static. Moreover, the recent gains do not exceed the pace of Russian advances during the initial phase of the war by two orders of magnitude.
Current Russian offensive rates align more closely with a recent ISW assessment suggesting that the Russian command has likely ordered its forces to significantly increase the tempo of mechanized attacks across the theater before muddy conditions set in during the autumn months.
As of 10:00 p.m. Kyiv time on October 29, there have been 158 combat engagements reported on the front since the start of the day. The enemy is focusing its main offensive efforts in the Kupiansk and Kurakhove directions while actively attacking in the Siversk and Pokrovsk directions.
